RBNZ Rate Decision in Focus

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  • Pound Sterling flat as retail sales slow – CBI reports sales growth began to cool this month.
  • Run of Eurozone Data Ahead – ECB bulletin, confidence stats and inflation data in focus. 
  • USD Exchange Rates Could Strengthen – Durable goods orders expected to increase.
  • RBNZ Rate Decision Ahead – What tone will the central bank adopt? 

AUD Exchange Rates Continue Lacklustre Week

As an exceptionally quiet week for Australian data continued, the Australian Dollar spent Wednesday trending in a narrow range against rivals like the US Dollar, Pound and Euro.

With nothing to give the Australian Dollar direction domestically, news from the US and market risk appetite will continue driving AUD exchange rates.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rates Stall as Retail Sales Growth Slows

The Pound (GBP) treaded water on Wednesday as a lull in Brexit headlines left investors to focus on the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) latest retail survey.

The figures revealed that sales growth slowed in August, but not to the extent expected.

Looking to the rest of the week, the main focus for GBP investors will likely be on a speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney on Friday, with the Pound potentially strengthening should he strike a broadly upbeat tone.

EUR Exchange Rate Volatility Likely on ECB Bulletin and German Inflation Data

Despite a few fluctuations yesterday, Euro exchange rates remained largely range bound through the session amid a lull in Eurozone data.

The Euro could slip today if the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic bulletin undermines the recent optimism surrounding a 2019 interest rate hike.

Eurozone confidence measures are also expected to show a dip in sentiment.

Finally, Germany’s inflation stats for September are predicted to come in at 0.1% on the month and 2.0% on the year. 

USD Exchange Rates Could Strengthen if Durable Goods Orders Rebound

There’s quite a lot of US data due for release later this evening, including the nation’s advance goods trade balance, gross domestic product figures and durable goods orders report.

Durable goods orders are expected to come in at 1.9% in August, a significant improvement on the previous month’s result of -1.7%.

If that proves to be the case the US Dollar could climb.

CAD Exchange Rates Flat Despite Robust Oil Prices

Canadian Dollar exchange rates traded in a narrow range yet again yesterday despite oil prices breaking above $82, with the traditionally oil-sensitive ‘Loonie’ seeing limited upside from the recent surge in prices due to ongoing production constraints.

However CAD exchange rates could be given a boost before the weekend if a speech by Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz hints that the bank may be close to its next rate hike.

NZD Exchange Rate Supported before RBNZ Rate Decision

Domestic ecostats had comparatively little impact on the New Zealand Dollar on Wednesday as investors focused on today’s interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Reports published yesterday showed that New Zealand’s trade deficit widened by more than expected in August, but both the ANZ activity outlook and business confidence indexes showed improvement.

The measure of business sentiment improved from -50.3 to -38.3 in September.

The New Zealand Dollar was able to record some (very slight) gains against the Pound, US Dollar and Euro ahead of today’s rate decision. Hawkish comments from the central bank would be NZD supportive, but any negativity is liable to send the ‘Kiwi’ lower. 

Data Released

07:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision (Sep)
11:30 AUD Job Vacancies (Aug)
16:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence (OCT)
16:35 JPY BOJ Kuroda speaks in Tokyo
18:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
22:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index
22:30 USD Advance Goods Trade Balance
22:30 USD Durable Goods Orders
23:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Addresses ESRB Conference in Frankfurt

Post by TorFX

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