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BY BRETT OTTAWA

Pay attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy statement


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7550 – 0.7750

The Australian Dollar edged lower throughout trade on Monday following a softer than anticipated Retail Sales Print. Consumer spending levels fell in February forcing a knee jerk sell off in the AUD and saw the commodity driven unit test technical supports at 0.7600/10. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7592 the Aussie then maintained a tight trading band holding on just above the 0.76 handle for much of the European and North American trading sessions. As investors attentions turn to the RBA and renewed advice on future monetary policy expectations, the AUD could test recent ranges on a dour interest rate dogma, however with most market participants expecting the RBA to maintain its neutral policy stance, excessive swings outside 0.75 – 0.77 are unlikely in the short term. Nevertheless the medium term outlook could see the AUD drift lower as the gap between Fed and RBA interest rates narrows and the AUD stretches its longest long position in 12 months.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 – 1.6700

The Great British Pound saw losses overnight after trading as high as 1.2550 in the Mondays Asian session. A weak UK Manufacturing PMI reading for the third month in a row saw the Sterling sink to 1.2490. Furthermore, manufacturing employment figures out of the United States hit six year highs pushing the Sterling to eventual lows of 1.2470 against the US Dollar. The Cable crossed regained some momentum to test 1.2500 on open this morning. The Pound is also lower against the Australian Dollar 1.6410 and New Zealand Dollar 1.7790.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Monday advancing early before relinquishing gains into the daily close. On the data front, yesterday US manufacturing looks to have cooled from the previous month. The ISM manufacturing index edged back half a point to 57.2 in March, down from January's 57.7. Looking ahead today in the US we see the release of trade figures, factory orders and revised durable goods orders for February. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0666, having traded to a to a fresh 3-week low of 1.0642 overnight. In Europe today attentions, will turn to the release of Eurozone retail sales along with UK construction PMI.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6920 – 0.7120

The New Zealand Dollar is back to where we opened this time yesterday against the U.S Dollar buying 0.7015 at the time of writing. The pair moved back under the 70c handle intraday to a low of 0.6985 thanks to a push lower in commodity prices. However, the Kiwi found momentum again as U.S economic data was released showing that growth in the manufacturing sector had slowed last month suggesting the Federal Reserve is still likely to move at a gradual pace regarding raising interest rates over the course of the next year. The New Zealand Dollar buys 0.6570 against the Euro and 77.74 against the Japanese Yen. Looking ahead, tonight we will see the release of the GlobalDairyTrade auction which measures the average price of dairy products sold at auction, should we see another increase as per last month the Kiwi could hold its ground above 70c.

BY BRETT OTTAWA

Support continues for the greenback


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7580 – 0.7700

The Australian Dollar edged marginally lower throughout trade on Friday breaking below 0.7650 to touch intraday lows at 0.7625. With few local drivers governing direction the Aussie was at the mercy of offshore directional stimulants as investors looked to buy back into the Euro and sell down carry trades. Despite dovish commentary from U.S Fed Officials and a softer than anticipated consumer spending report the AUD failed to capitalise on greenback weakness and the commodity driven unit remained stubbornly range bound. The Australian Dollar has upheld a largely neutral range since the fed interest rate hike in mid-March and as attentions turn to the RBA and its monthly policy announcement there is little scope to suggest a move outside said ranges. With investors watching support at 0.7610 and resistance at 0.7670 we expect a relatively quiet session with the AUD maintaining present bounds.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 - 1.6700

The Great British Pound squared all losses for the week after seeing a weekly low of 1.2385 against the US Dollar. The Pair recovered post Article 50 trigger to see an eventual high on Friday evening of 1.2550 as one of the best performing currencies for the day. The cable cross movements will be determined by a raft of FOMC members scheduled to speak along with Manufacturing data domestically in the UK as it looks to break 1.2600. Sterling opens higher against the Australian dollar 1.6445 and New Zealand Dollar 1.7900.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The greenback remains quite well supported this week advancing higher against most of its rival counterparts. The Aussie and the Loonie the only currencies that have mostly remained neutral. To kick off the month there' plenty of macroeconomic data scheduled for today. In the early Asian session sees the release of Japanese manufacturing PMI along with the quarterly Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan. The JPY/USD pair is currently trading at 111.33 down 0.45% over the last 24 hours of trade. Later in the session, attentions will turn to producer price inflation and unemployment figures from the Eurozone. As well as German Final Manufacturing PMI for the month of March. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0669. Data is light out of the US with the only scheduled release manufacturing PMI for the month of March.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6900 - 0.7100

The New Zealand Dollar traded within a one-cent range last week between the levels of 0.6970 and 0.7067 against the Greenback with the USD being the main driver at the moment. The Kiwi didn’t react much to a mixed bag of local economic releases with Building Permits jumping up 14% in February, following an increase of 2.1% in January, this was the largest increase in eight months for both houses and apartments. According to the ANZ, Business Confidence fell in March to 11.3 down from 16.6 in February, with confidence in the construction industry declining. The NZD is currently changing hands just above 70c with this level seen as resistance for the month of March it will again be a fighting to hold above these levels.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Aussie struggles amid range bound trade; USD extends recovery


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7580 – 0.7730

The Australian Dollar edged marginally lower through trade on Thursday succumbing to broader US Dollar gains while holding onto a tightening trading band. Having broken higher in early trade to touch 0.7680 the Aussie shifted downward and moved back through 0.7650 touching intraday lows at 0.7641. The Aussie has again fallen into a range bound pattern and is struggling to break outside levels between 0.7580 and 0.7730. Having failed to break topside resistance investors are seeking a catalyst to break trading patterns with a move through 0.76 and a 200 day moving average at 0.7550 could signal a deeper move lower toward supports at 0.7380. Attentions now turn to a raft of U.S macro drivers for direction into the weekend.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 – 1.6400

The Great British Pound managed to post some mild gains when valued against its US Counterpart on Thursday, temporarily reaching a high of 1.2523 before later falling. Whilst the Greenback has shone brighter than many of its peers over the past 24 hours the Sterling' performance overall has been relatively solid notching up gains worth 0.3 percent. Whilst trading one and half cents below the highs captured earlier in the week the Sterling will be given a further opportunity to track back towards resistance at the 1.2500 mark ahead of the release of current account and GDP prints tonight. This morning the Great British Pound opens higher versus the Greenback (1.2469), the Aussie (1.7804) and the Kiwi (1.6301).

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar continued its upward march through trade on Thursday breaking higher against both the Euro and the Japanese Yen. An uptick in 4th quarter GDP and steady unemployment claims bolstered speculation the U.S recovery remains on track and offered stark contrast to declining CPI inflation prints across Spain and Germany. Localised price pressures across Europe appear to have waned throughout March and forced the Euro below key technical supports at 1.07. The break lower triggered a series of sell orders and compounded Euro losses throughout the session forcing the 19 nation combined unit to intraday lows at 1.0673. The dollar has enjoyed strong gains against the Euro since touching 4 month lows on Tuesday, recouping 230 plus points across two consecutive daily advances. With investors repositioning themselves and unwinding last week' largely overdone USD sell off attentions now turn to a raft of Macroeconomic indicators, headlined by the US Core PCE index for direction into the weekend.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6830 – 0.7030

Having consistently rejected topside advances this week the New Zealand dollar has stalled when valued against its US Counterpart. Focused towards an area close to the 70 US Cents mark, trading ranges have comfortably been contained over the past 24 hours that is despite a broader bias towards the worlds reserve currency amid murmurings that the pace of rates rises from the FOMC may be quicker that what markets have priced in. In what' shaping up as uneventful end to the week a raft of macro events from the United States this evening will be the main driving force ahead of several key prints from China early next week. Opening weaker the New Zealand dollar currently buys 70.06 US Cents.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Aussie rallies on uptick in commodities


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7580 – 0.7720

The Australian dollar has extended gains overnight from yesterday' flat trading session to reach two week highs. A range bound Aussie saw movements initially between 0.7630 and 0.7655 in the Asian session before seeing a high of 0.7675 on this morning' open. Renewed risk appetite on commodity currencies continue to see gains for the Australian dollar. It now looks to continue its advance to test topside levels of 0.77 against the American dollar ahead of HIA new home sales data released this morning.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6030 – 1.6330

The Great British Pound saw further weakness in the Asian trading session yesterday, sold off from 1.2460 to an intraday low of 1.2380 as traders positioned themselves in preparation for the Trigger of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. Despite seeing pressure early in the European session, the Sterling was resilient and saw an overnight high of 1.2470, selling on the rumour and buying on fact as Prime Minister Theresa May officially confirmed the UK will be leaving Europe in an expected timeframe of two years. Further ahead the cable cross looks towards American GDP figures for the quarter and Unemployment claims in the North American session this evening. The Sterling opens lower against the Australian dollar (1.6210), along with the New Zealand dollar (1.7670).

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6980 – 0.7080

The New Zealand dollar edged higher through trade on Wednesday shrugging aside wider USD gains and holding on above the 0.70 handle. Having touched intraday lows at 0.6994 the Kiwi bounced off supports and moved higher into northern hemisphere trade. An uptick in commodity prices helped bolster demand for commodity driven currencies and the NZD moved to touch intraday highs at 0.7039. The Kiwi has maintained a relatively tight trading band through much of the last fortnight and appears largely range bound while market participants sit back, reluctant to extend positions before obtaining a deeper insight into the successful implementation of President Trump' reflation policies.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Political uncertainty as Britain set to invoke Article 50


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7570 - 0.7670

The Australian dollar drifted lower in the local session yesterday testing key resistance levels late in the afternoon. Seeing an intraday high of 0.7630 we saw the dollar decline to an eventual low of 0.7590 to start the European session. While the US dollar index firmed higher, the Trump trade continues to be questioned as markets await further news on policy. The Australian dollar reversed all losses in overnight trading seeing an eventual high of 0.7655 supported by a rally on oil and rebound in iron ore prices after several days of losses. The Australian dollar opens at 0.7630 this morning.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6175 - 1.6575

The Great British Pound tested topside resistance of 1.2600 against it US counterpart heading into the European session yesterday. The Sterling was then battered on a combination of higher US consumer confidence level and markets positioning themselves ahead of Article 50 official trigger date this evening. This will begin a two-year process of the UK preparing their exit from the European Union. The Cable cross started its decline from its highs of 1.2600 to end the North American session at eventual lows of 1.2440. The Great British Pound opens lower against the Australian Dollar (1.6325) and New Zealand Dollar (1.7760).

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar advanced through trade on Tuesday reversing the recent downward trend in the face of wider political uncertainty and an uptick in key macroeconomic indicators. Buoyed by improvements in consumer confidence and supported by commentary from key Fed Officials the Dollar advanced across the board. Consumer confidence touched 16 year highs while Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan both supported an additional two hikes throughout the year widening the Greenback' yield advantage over the Euro and Yen while narrowing the Gap to high yielding emerging markets. The Dollar touched intraday highs at 111.20 JPY while the Euro fell sharply touching intraday lows at 1.0799. Market participants looked to short the 19 nation combined unit as political uncertainty escalates ahead of Britain' admission of Article 50 and the commencement of Brexit negotiations.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6950 - 0.7050

The New Zealand dollar edged marginally lower through trade on Tuesday touching intraday lows at 0.7008. With little domestic data on hand to steer investors the Kiwi was at the mercy of wider USD sentiment and currency flows. The Greenback advanced across the board while the NZD found support on moves approaching the 0.70 handle. Despite broader USD weakness of late the Kiwi failed to extend upside momentum and the recent sell off suggests the door may be open to revisit lows approaching 0.68. As the carry trades attractiveness diminishes the demand for the Kiwi and its yield advantage narrows with investors still extending USD longs on bets the Fed will raise rates twice more this year. Attentions today turn to the UK and Britain' submission of Article 50.

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