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BY MATT RICHARDSON

AUD poised near key short term averages


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7490 – 0.7615

The Australian dollar offered little to excite investors through trade on Wednesday, bouncing amid a 30 point range and failing to recoup losses suffered earlier in the week. Having broken back below the 0.76 handle following the RBA' dovish undertone and a softer than anticipated retails sales print, the AUD looked offshore for further directional impetus with little domestic data to drive direction. Despite a weakening USD the AUD failed to force a recovery and mount a move back above 0.76 and its short term moving average at 0.7614. Despite the early week sell off the bullish uptrend remains largely intact however failure to bounce higher may incite a bearish shift in sentiment and March' 0.75 low suddenly becomes a key resistance point. Attentions into the end of the week turn to U.S Non-Farm payroll numbers as the primary marker driving direction.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6350 – 1.6550

The Great British Pound traded in a tight twenty-point range against the US Dollar in yesterday' Asian session between 1.2425 and 1.2445. Sterling was bolstered early on during European hours by a strong UK Services PMI reading indicating a change in momentum after seeing a five-month low in February. Business activity grew at the strongest rates this year as the GBP/USD cross immediately jumped fifty basis points to 1.2485, before pulling back slightly on a higher than expected American ADP Non-Farm Employment figure. Cable regained its momentum on broad USD weakness following the release of FOMC minutes, as it attempts to push through 1.2500 on open this morning. The Great British Pound is trading higher against the Australian dollar 1.6500 and the New Zealand Dollar 1.7910.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6890 – 0.7020

The New Zealand Dollar remained under 70c during yesterday' session against the US Dollar and dipped to an eventual low of 0.6932 during the US session. Intraday we saw the release of ANZ Commodity prices released by the ANZ National Bank which reported a small increase 0.4% for the month of March vs a print of a 2.0% increase for February, the data did little to move the NZD/USD which still remains under pressure. With stronger than expected U.S Private Sector Employment data the pair was dragged lower to 0.6932, however, the Dollar softened after the release of the FOMC minutes. The Fed is now expecting to begin balance sheet reduction later this year and may take a pause in raising the official short-term interest rate, the NZD/USD recouped all losses to close Wednesday' session at 0.6965. The remainder of week is light on economic releases locally and will take further direction from offshore markets.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Political uncertainty as Britain set to invoke Article 50


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7500 - 0.7650

The Australian Dollar edged lower through trade on Tuesday drifting below 0.76 on the back of a softer than anticipated Retail Sales print and a decidedly dovish RBA Monetary Policy Statement. While the RBA decision to maintain the current cash rate came as little surprise to investors the Board proffered a somewhat dour assessment of economic growth conditions and price pressures leading market participants to amend their current monetary policy expectations. Having broken support at 0.7590/0.76 the Aussie touched intraday and three week lows at 0.7545 marking a near 2 cent sell off since reaching 0.7750 in mid-march. The selloff has been sparked by renewed expectations for U.S interest rate hikes and a suspected narrowing in the yield advantage. Prior to yesterday' monetary policy assessment markets anticipated the RBA would maintain its neutral policy stance with any deterioration in the AUD yield deriving from Federal Reserve' rate hikes. Any suggestion the RBA may lower rates to stimulate growth and drive prices higher will only accelerate AUD repositioning and a break below 0.7530 could prompt a deeper downward correction.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6300 - 1.6600

The Great British Pound flat lined during the Asian session sitting just under the 1.2500 mark against the US Dollar. The Sterling was then aggressively sold off as a bout of risk aversion took place on equity markets to see a low of 1.2425 late in the piece as it headed into the European session. We saw a weaker British Construction PMI reading as the construction industry cooled off in March. This did little to help the cable cross in the local session as the Sterling traded in a forty-point range of 1.2420-1.2460. UK markets look to the latest Services PMI data set this evening hoping for rebound from a dip in February. The Great British Pound has seen little change from open yesterday against the Australian dollar, currently swapping hands at 1.6440 and is higher against the New Zealand dollar 1.7825.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

Fairly quiet US session yesterday with the only major data release being US Trade Balance for the month of February. The U.S. trade deficit fell more than expected as exports increased to a two-year high and slowing domestic demand weighed on imports. US trade balance rose from -$48.2bn to -$43.6bn. Today will see the release of Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reports for March, along with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its previous meeting in March when the Federal Reserve raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points. Looking ahead at the end of the week all eyes this week will be on the US Nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The EUR/USD pair touched a 3-week low overnight of 1.0635 and is currently trading at 1.0678. While the Sterling fell to a weekly low 1.2419 against the greenback. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2432.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6925 - 0.7025

The New Zealand Dollar retreated early on and by lunchtime had fallen under 70c against the U.S Dollar. Yesterday, The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Quarterly Survey of Business Option showed a drop in business confidence for the first quarter of 2017 however, businesses remained upbeat with expected annual growth for the economy to remain around 3 percent over the course of the year. The Kiwi barley nudged on the news however was caught in the pull back of the Australian dollar and the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. As local markets closed and the European and US session began the Kiwi drifted lower to an eventual low of 0.6966, the GlobalDairyTrade auction despite rising 1.6% had no impact on the local unit. Looking ahead, ANZ Commodity Prices are due for release this morning and key macroeconomic pieces out of the USA.

BY BRETT OTTAWA

Pay attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy statement


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7550 – 0.7750

The Australian Dollar edged lower throughout trade on Monday following a softer than anticipated Retail Sales Print. Consumer spending levels fell in February forcing a knee jerk sell off in the AUD and saw the commodity driven unit test technical supports at 0.7600/10. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7592 the Aussie then maintained a tight trading band holding on just above the 0.76 handle for much of the European and North American trading sessions. As investors attentions turn to the RBA and renewed advice on future monetary policy expectations, the AUD could test recent ranges on a dour interest rate dogma, however with most market participants expecting the RBA to maintain its neutral policy stance, excessive swings outside 0.75 – 0.77 are unlikely in the short term. Nevertheless the medium term outlook could see the AUD drift lower as the gap between Fed and RBA interest rates narrows and the AUD stretches its longest long position in 12 months.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 – 1.6700

The Great British Pound saw losses overnight after trading as high as 1.2550 in the Mondays Asian session. A weak UK Manufacturing PMI reading for the third month in a row saw the Sterling sink to 1.2490. Furthermore, manufacturing employment figures out of the United States hit six year highs pushing the Sterling to eventual lows of 1.2470 against the US Dollar. The Cable crossed regained some momentum to test 1.2500 on open this morning. The Pound is also lower against the Australian Dollar 1.6410 and New Zealand Dollar 1.7790.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Monday advancing early before relinquishing gains into the daily close. On the data front, yesterday US manufacturing looks to have cooled from the previous month. The ISM manufacturing index edged back half a point to 57.2 in March, down from January's 57.7. Looking ahead today in the US we see the release of trade figures, factory orders and revised durable goods orders for February. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0666, having traded to a to a fresh 3-week low of 1.0642 overnight. In Europe today attentions, will turn to the release of Eurozone retail sales along with UK construction PMI.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6920 – 0.7120

The New Zealand Dollar is back to where we opened this time yesterday against the U.S Dollar buying 0.7015 at the time of writing. The pair moved back under the 70c handle intraday to a low of 0.6985 thanks to a push lower in commodity prices. However, the Kiwi found momentum again as U.S economic data was released showing that growth in the manufacturing sector had slowed last month suggesting the Federal Reserve is still likely to move at a gradual pace regarding raising interest rates over the course of the next year. The New Zealand Dollar buys 0.6570 against the Euro and 77.74 against the Japanese Yen. Looking ahead, tonight we will see the release of the GlobalDairyTrade auction which measures the average price of dairy products sold at auction, should we see another increase as per last month the Kiwi could hold its ground above 70c.

BY BRETT OTTAWA

Support continues for the greenback


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7580 – 0.7700

The Australian Dollar edged marginally lower throughout trade on Friday breaking below 0.7650 to touch intraday lows at 0.7625. With few local drivers governing direction the Aussie was at the mercy of offshore directional stimulants as investors looked to buy back into the Euro and sell down carry trades. Despite dovish commentary from U.S Fed Officials and a softer than anticipated consumer spending report the AUD failed to capitalise on greenback weakness and the commodity driven unit remained stubbornly range bound. The Australian Dollar has upheld a largely neutral range since the fed interest rate hike in mid-March and as attentions turn to the RBA and its monthly policy announcement there is little scope to suggest a move outside said ranges. With investors watching support at 0.7610 and resistance at 0.7670 we expect a relatively quiet session with the AUD maintaining present bounds.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 - 1.6700

The Great British Pound squared all losses for the week after seeing a weekly low of 1.2385 against the US Dollar. The Pair recovered post Article 50 trigger to see an eventual high on Friday evening of 1.2550 as one of the best performing currencies for the day. The cable cross movements will be determined by a raft of FOMC members scheduled to speak along with Manufacturing data domestically in the UK as it looks to break 1.2600. Sterling opens higher against the Australian dollar 1.6445 and New Zealand Dollar 1.7900.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The greenback remains quite well supported this week advancing higher against most of its rival counterparts. The Aussie and the Loonie the only currencies that have mostly remained neutral. To kick off the month there' plenty of macroeconomic data scheduled for today. In the early Asian session sees the release of Japanese manufacturing PMI along with the quarterly Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan. The JPY/USD pair is currently trading at 111.33 down 0.45% over the last 24 hours of trade. Later in the session, attentions will turn to producer price inflation and unemployment figures from the Eurozone. As well as German Final Manufacturing PMI for the month of March. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0669. Data is light out of the US with the only scheduled release manufacturing PMI for the month of March.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6900 - 0.7100

The New Zealand Dollar traded within a one-cent range last week between the levels of 0.6970 and 0.7067 against the Greenback with the USD being the main driver at the moment. The Kiwi didn’t react much to a mixed bag of local economic releases with Building Permits jumping up 14% in February, following an increase of 2.1% in January, this was the largest increase in eight months for both houses and apartments. According to the ANZ, Business Confidence fell in March to 11.3 down from 16.6 in February, with confidence in the construction industry declining. The NZD is currently changing hands just above 70c with this level seen as resistance for the month of March it will again be a fighting to hold above these levels.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Aussie struggles amid range bound trade; USD extends recovery


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7580 – 0.7730

The Australian Dollar edged marginally lower through trade on Thursday succumbing to broader US Dollar gains while holding onto a tightening trading band. Having broken higher in early trade to touch 0.7680 the Aussie shifted downward and moved back through 0.7650 touching intraday lows at 0.7641. The Aussie has again fallen into a range bound pattern and is struggling to break outside levels between 0.7580 and 0.7730. Having failed to break topside resistance investors are seeking a catalyst to break trading patterns with a move through 0.76 and a 200 day moving average at 0.7550 could signal a deeper move lower toward supports at 0.7380. Attentions now turn to a raft of U.S macro drivers for direction into the weekend.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 – 1.6400

The Great British Pound managed to post some mild gains when valued against its US Counterpart on Thursday, temporarily reaching a high of 1.2523 before later falling. Whilst the Greenback has shone brighter than many of its peers over the past 24 hours the Sterling' performance overall has been relatively solid notching up gains worth 0.3 percent. Whilst trading one and half cents below the highs captured earlier in the week the Sterling will be given a further opportunity to track back towards resistance at the 1.2500 mark ahead of the release of current account and GDP prints tonight. This morning the Great British Pound opens higher versus the Greenback (1.2469), the Aussie (1.7804) and the Kiwi (1.6301).

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar continued its upward march through trade on Thursday breaking higher against both the Euro and the Japanese Yen. An uptick in 4th quarter GDP and steady unemployment claims bolstered speculation the U.S recovery remains on track and offered stark contrast to declining CPI inflation prints across Spain and Germany. Localised price pressures across Europe appear to have waned throughout March and forced the Euro below key technical supports at 1.07. The break lower triggered a series of sell orders and compounded Euro losses throughout the session forcing the 19 nation combined unit to intraday lows at 1.0673. The dollar has enjoyed strong gains against the Euro since touching 4 month lows on Tuesday, recouping 230 plus points across two consecutive daily advances. With investors repositioning themselves and unwinding last week' largely overdone USD sell off attentions now turn to a raft of Macroeconomic indicators, headlined by the US Core PCE index for direction into the weekend.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6830 – 0.7030

Having consistently rejected topside advances this week the New Zealand dollar has stalled when valued against its US Counterpart. Focused towards an area close to the 70 US Cents mark, trading ranges have comfortably been contained over the past 24 hours that is despite a broader bias towards the worlds reserve currency amid murmurings that the pace of rates rises from the FOMC may be quicker that what markets have priced in. In what' shaping up as uneventful end to the week a raft of macro events from the United States this evening will be the main driving force ahead of several key prints from China early next week. Opening weaker the New Zealand dollar currently buys 70.06 US Cents.

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