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BY BRETT OTTAWA

Market prepares for US Nonfarm Payrolls Report


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7500 – 0.7650

The Australian dollar again offered little to incite excitement through trade on Thursday failing to recoup early week losses and bounced about amid a 40 point range between 0.7535 and 0.7575.With little domestic data on hand to drive direction the AUD was at the mercy of offshore stimulants and moved marginally lower throughout the day as investors adding support to the USD on larger than expected fall in unemployment claims. Losses were however tempered as market participants warily sat back ahead of a two day summit between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. The risk of hard-line claims of currency manipulation is forcing investors to the sidelines as attentions turn to today' all important non-farm payroll print. The Aussie remains poised to break either side of bullish and bearish channels with a close below the 200 day moving average possibly prompting a shift toward the March low.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6300 – 1.6600

The Great British Pound edged ever so marginally lower through trade on Thursday largely holding onto gains enjoyed following Wednesday' upbeat services print. Slipping back below 1.25 the bound bounced about amid a 50 point range finding support on moves toward 1.2450 and touched intraday lows at 1.2451 largely shrugging off a marked decline in housing equity withdrawals. Having consolidated above the 55 day moving average Sterling looks set to test a near term bullish uptrend with support on moved toward 1.2300, however a consolidated move below this key resistance point could signal a directional shift and open moves toward 1.2150 and January lows near 1.20. Attentions today turn to US Non-Farm Payroll numbers, domestic manufacturing data and BoE governor Carney for direction into the weekend.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US dollar is higher when valued against most of its major currency counterparts. Overnight U.S. Jobless Claims declined by 25,000 to a Five-Week low of 234,000 in the week ended April 1. With the US labor force showing signs of a recovery all eyes will be on tonight' US Nonfarm Payrolls Report which are expected to have added 174K new jobs in March, after adding 235K in February. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0643, the lowest level in nearly three weeks. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.0610 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.0685.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6925 – 0.7025

The New Zealand Dollar traded within a narrow range yesterday moving between levels of 0.6960 and 0.6990 against the U.S Dollar. With little in the way of local macroeconomic data the local unit looked elsewhere for market direction, US initial claims ended last month on a high note with unemployment claims decreasing by 25k to 234k, this week' improvements were driven by a sharp decrease in claims in NJ, PA and NY states. The data weighed on the New Zealand Dollar which is failing to move past key resistance levels of 70c. Looking ahead, markets are on tender hooks ahead of a meeting between the U.S president Donald Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jingping. President Trump tweeted last week that the summit “will be very difficult”. The New Zealand Dollar slightly higher against the Euro buying 0.6546 and also up against the Japanese Yen at 77.25.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

AUD poised near key short term averages


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7490 – 0.7615

The Australian dollar offered little to excite investors through trade on Wednesday, bouncing amid a 30 point range and failing to recoup losses suffered earlier in the week. Having broken back below the 0.76 handle following the RBA' dovish undertone and a softer than anticipated retails sales print, the AUD looked offshore for further directional impetus with little domestic data to drive direction. Despite a weakening USD the AUD failed to force a recovery and mount a move back above 0.76 and its short term moving average at 0.7614. Despite the early week sell off the bullish uptrend remains largely intact however failure to bounce higher may incite a bearish shift in sentiment and March' 0.75 low suddenly becomes a key resistance point. Attentions into the end of the week turn to U.S Non-Farm payroll numbers as the primary marker driving direction.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6350 – 1.6550

The Great British Pound traded in a tight twenty-point range against the US Dollar in yesterday' Asian session between 1.2425 and 1.2445. Sterling was bolstered early on during European hours by a strong UK Services PMI reading indicating a change in momentum after seeing a five-month low in February. Business activity grew at the strongest rates this year as the GBP/USD cross immediately jumped fifty basis points to 1.2485, before pulling back slightly on a higher than expected American ADP Non-Farm Employment figure. Cable regained its momentum on broad USD weakness following the release of FOMC minutes, as it attempts to push through 1.2500 on open this morning. The Great British Pound is trading higher against the Australian dollar 1.6500 and the New Zealand Dollar 1.7910.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6890 – 0.7020

The New Zealand Dollar remained under 70c during yesterday' session against the US Dollar and dipped to an eventual low of 0.6932 during the US session. Intraday we saw the release of ANZ Commodity prices released by the ANZ National Bank which reported a small increase 0.4% for the month of March vs a print of a 2.0% increase for February, the data did little to move the NZD/USD which still remains under pressure. With stronger than expected U.S Private Sector Employment data the pair was dragged lower to 0.6932, however, the Dollar softened after the release of the FOMC minutes. The Fed is now expecting to begin balance sheet reduction later this year and may take a pause in raising the official short-term interest rate, the NZD/USD recouped all losses to close Wednesday' session at 0.6965. The remainder of week is light on economic releases locally and will take further direction from offshore markets.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Political uncertainty as Britain set to invoke Article 50


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7500 - 0.7650

The Australian Dollar edged lower through trade on Tuesday drifting below 0.76 on the back of a softer than anticipated Retail Sales print and a decidedly dovish RBA Monetary Policy Statement. While the RBA decision to maintain the current cash rate came as little surprise to investors the Board proffered a somewhat dour assessment of economic growth conditions and price pressures leading market participants to amend their current monetary policy expectations. Having broken support at 0.7590/0.76 the Aussie touched intraday and three week lows at 0.7545 marking a near 2 cent sell off since reaching 0.7750 in mid-march. The selloff has been sparked by renewed expectations for U.S interest rate hikes and a suspected narrowing in the yield advantage. Prior to yesterday' monetary policy assessment markets anticipated the RBA would maintain its neutral policy stance with any deterioration in the AUD yield deriving from Federal Reserve' rate hikes. Any suggestion the RBA may lower rates to stimulate growth and drive prices higher will only accelerate AUD repositioning and a break below 0.7530 could prompt a deeper downward correction.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6300 - 1.6600

The Great British Pound flat lined during the Asian session sitting just under the 1.2500 mark against the US Dollar. The Sterling was then aggressively sold off as a bout of risk aversion took place on equity markets to see a low of 1.2425 late in the piece as it headed into the European session. We saw a weaker British Construction PMI reading as the construction industry cooled off in March. This did little to help the cable cross in the local session as the Sterling traded in a forty-point range of 1.2420-1.2460. UK markets look to the latest Services PMI data set this evening hoping for rebound from a dip in February. The Great British Pound has seen little change from open yesterday against the Australian dollar, currently swapping hands at 1.6440 and is higher against the New Zealand dollar 1.7825.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

Fairly quiet US session yesterday with the only major data release being US Trade Balance for the month of February. The U.S. trade deficit fell more than expected as exports increased to a two-year high and slowing domestic demand weighed on imports. US trade balance rose from -$48.2bn to -$43.6bn. Today will see the release of Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reports for March, along with the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from its previous meeting in March when the Federal Reserve raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points. Looking ahead at the end of the week all eyes this week will be on the US Nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The EUR/USD pair touched a 3-week low overnight of 1.0635 and is currently trading at 1.0678. While the Sterling fell to a weekly low 1.2419 against the greenback. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2432.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6925 - 0.7025

The New Zealand Dollar retreated early on and by lunchtime had fallen under 70c against the U.S Dollar. Yesterday, The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research Quarterly Survey of Business Option showed a drop in business confidence for the first quarter of 2017 however, businesses remained upbeat with expected annual growth for the economy to remain around 3 percent over the course of the year. The Kiwi barley nudged on the news however was caught in the pull back of the Australian dollar and the RBA Monetary Policy Statement. As local markets closed and the European and US session began the Kiwi drifted lower to an eventual low of 0.6966, the GlobalDairyTrade auction despite rising 1.6% had no impact on the local unit. Looking ahead, ANZ Commodity Prices are due for release this morning and key macroeconomic pieces out of the USA.

BY BRETT OTTAWA

Pay attention to the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy statement


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7550 – 0.7750

The Australian Dollar edged lower throughout trade on Monday following a softer than anticipated Retail Sales Print. Consumer spending levels fell in February forcing a knee jerk sell off in the AUD and saw the commodity driven unit test technical supports at 0.7600/10. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7592 the Aussie then maintained a tight trading band holding on just above the 0.76 handle for much of the European and North American trading sessions. As investors attentions turn to the RBA and renewed advice on future monetary policy expectations, the AUD could test recent ranges on a dour interest rate dogma, however with most market participants expecting the RBA to maintain its neutral policy stance, excessive swings outside 0.75 – 0.77 are unlikely in the short term. Nevertheless the medium term outlook could see the AUD drift lower as the gap between Fed and RBA interest rates narrows and the AUD stretches its longest long position in 12 months.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 – 1.6700

The Great British Pound saw losses overnight after trading as high as 1.2550 in the Mondays Asian session. A weak UK Manufacturing PMI reading for the third month in a row saw the Sterling sink to 1.2490. Furthermore, manufacturing employment figures out of the United States hit six year highs pushing the Sterling to eventual lows of 1.2470 against the US Dollar. The Cable crossed regained some momentum to test 1.2500 on open this morning. The Pound is also lower against the Australian Dollar 1.6410 and New Zealand Dollar 1.7790.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Monday advancing early before relinquishing gains into the daily close. On the data front, yesterday US manufacturing looks to have cooled from the previous month. The ISM manufacturing index edged back half a point to 57.2 in March, down from January's 57.7. Looking ahead today in the US we see the release of trade figures, factory orders and revised durable goods orders for February. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0666, having traded to a to a fresh 3-week low of 1.0642 overnight. In Europe today attentions, will turn to the release of Eurozone retail sales along with UK construction PMI.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6920 – 0.7120

The New Zealand Dollar is back to where we opened this time yesterday against the U.S Dollar buying 0.7015 at the time of writing. The pair moved back under the 70c handle intraday to a low of 0.6985 thanks to a push lower in commodity prices. However, the Kiwi found momentum again as U.S economic data was released showing that growth in the manufacturing sector had slowed last month suggesting the Federal Reserve is still likely to move at a gradual pace regarding raising interest rates over the course of the next year. The New Zealand Dollar buys 0.6570 against the Euro and 77.74 against the Japanese Yen. Looking ahead, tonight we will see the release of the GlobalDairyTrade auction which measures the average price of dairy products sold at auction, should we see another increase as per last month the Kiwi could hold its ground above 70c.

BY BRETT OTTAWA

Support continues for the greenback


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7580 – 0.7700

The Australian Dollar edged marginally lower throughout trade on Friday breaking below 0.7650 to touch intraday lows at 0.7625. With few local drivers governing direction the Aussie was at the mercy of offshore directional stimulants as investors looked to buy back into the Euro and sell down carry trades. Despite dovish commentary from U.S Fed Officials and a softer than anticipated consumer spending report the AUD failed to capitalise on greenback weakness and the commodity driven unit remained stubbornly range bound. The Australian Dollar has upheld a largely neutral range since the fed interest rate hike in mid-March and as attentions turn to the RBA and its monthly policy announcement there is little scope to suggest a move outside said ranges. With investors watching support at 0.7610 and resistance at 0.7670 we expect a relatively quiet session with the AUD maintaining present bounds.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 - 1.6700

The Great British Pound squared all losses for the week after seeing a weekly low of 1.2385 against the US Dollar. The Pair recovered post Article 50 trigger to see an eventual high on Friday evening of 1.2550 as one of the best performing currencies for the day. The cable cross movements will be determined by a raft of FOMC members scheduled to speak along with Manufacturing data domestically in the UK as it looks to break 1.2600. Sterling opens higher against the Australian dollar 1.6445 and New Zealand Dollar 1.7900.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The greenback remains quite well supported this week advancing higher against most of its rival counterparts. The Aussie and the Loonie the only currencies that have mostly remained neutral. To kick off the month there' plenty of macroeconomic data scheduled for today. In the early Asian session sees the release of Japanese manufacturing PMI along with the quarterly Tankan survey from the Bank of Japan. The JPY/USD pair is currently trading at 111.33 down 0.45% over the last 24 hours of trade. Later in the session, attentions will turn to producer price inflation and unemployment figures from the Eurozone. As well as German Final Manufacturing PMI for the month of March. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0669. Data is light out of the US with the only scheduled release manufacturing PMI for the month of March.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6900 - 0.7100

The New Zealand Dollar traded within a one-cent range last week between the levels of 0.6970 and 0.7067 against the Greenback with the USD being the main driver at the moment. The Kiwi didn’t react much to a mixed bag of local economic releases with Building Permits jumping up 14% in February, following an increase of 2.1% in January, this was the largest increase in eight months for both houses and apartments. According to the ANZ, Business Confidence fell in March to 11.3 down from 16.6 in February, with confidence in the construction industry declining. The NZD is currently changing hands just above 70c with this level seen as resistance for the month of March it will again be a fighting to hold above these levels.

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