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BY SHAMEEM MUSA

Tensions rise between President Trump and Kim Jong-un


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7450 - 0.7530

A quiet day on the Australian dollar front saw a 20 pip trading range during the local session. Starting the day at 0.75 support against the US Dollar, the Aussie remains vulnerable to downside risk as NAB business confidence dropped one index point to +6 in March. This despite comments of the strongest conditions since the GFC, an intraday low of 0.7495 ensued. Despite clawing its way back to an overnight high of 0.7515, we saw swings to a low of 0.7475 as markets continue to see movements back into the US Dollar and Yen as risk off tones continue. Investors look to this morning' data set of Westpac consumer sentiment and Chinese inflation figures as the Australian dollar opens at 0.7497.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6550 - 1.6750

The Great British Pound rallied through trade on Tuesday extending Monday' rally pushing upward toward 1.25. Sterling rallied back through 1.24 after annualised CPI showed a 2.3% increase in prices, a print beyond average market participant' expectations. The strong read supports a recent acceleration in price pressures as headline inflation gathers momentum and calls for the BoE to temper quantitative easing programs and tighten monetary policy escalate. Jumping through 1.2450 sterling touched intraday highs at 1.2495 as further support was found in a weakening USD. The dollar fell broadly as declining treasury yields and escalating geopolitical risks pushed investors toward safe haven assets. Attentions now turn to BoE head Mark Carney for commentary and guidance on future monetary policy with Wage Growth and Average Earnings data providing macroeconomic direction. While the bullish trend remains in tack a move toward an d below 1.2302/05 could signal a shift in sentiment and move outside the current channel.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

Rising geopolitical concerns are taking centre stage in the past 24 hours following a warning from North Korea of a nuclear strike should the US provoke them. As a US war ship sail towards to the Korean Peninsula a flight to safety towards US denominated assets are being purchased by investors. EUR/USD is little changed from this time yesterday, we did see a brief rally to 1.0630 before settling back at 1.0605. One pair not affected is the USD/JPY which has continued to grind lower and hit a fresh five-month low of 109.53. The economic document today sees the release of Japanese Machine Orders and PPI however, markets are likely to be focused on any further developments surrounding North Korea and President Trump Twitter tweets.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6860 - 0.7025

The New Zealand dollar opens this morning little changed when valued against its US Counterpart. Having traded to an overnight high of 0.6968 the past 24 hours has been a largely uninspiring trading window for the Kiwi dollar. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6954. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6890 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6975. On the data front another quiet session expected locally with little to no economic data due.

BY SHAMEEM MUSA

Yellen : “I don’t want to have to hike rates rapidly”


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7450 – 0.7575

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6400 – 1.6600

The Great British Pound edged higher throughout trade on Monday recouping losses suffered into the end of last week and bouncing back through 1.24 to touch intraday highs at 1.2428. Sterling found support in a softening US dollar as investors looked to square Friday' gains and pare positions into a shortened week. Treasury yields fell and investors looked to safe haven assets as escalating Syrian tensions and European political uncertainty prompted market participants to temper bullish trading bets ahead of key macroeconomic numbers. Attentions turn to CPI inflation data today and wage growth tomorrow as key markers guiding future monetary policy expectations and short term direction. A strong print could see the pound test 1.25 while a softer read could prompt a shift lower back to key technical supports at 1.2305.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The Euro touched fresh one-month lows of 1.0569 when valued against its U.S counterpart as investors and markets continued to speculate on the upcoming French presidential election overnight. There haven’t been any sudden movements following Federal Chairwoman Janet Yellen' comments early this morning, she didn’t’ offer anything new regarding monetary policy and that the Fed' plans are still to raise rates gradually. She described the US economy in a “healthy” state and that the unemployment rate of 4.5% is a bit below full employment. The pair is facing resistance up at 1.0630 followed by 1.0700 psychological levels. The Dollar is lower against the Yen currently buying 110.74.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6860 – 0.7025

The New Zealand Dollar advanced against the US Dollar on Monday reaching an intraday high of 0.6965 up 0.38 percent for the session. A quiet session expected locally with little to no economic data due. Further direction will be led by USD movements. Attentions will turn to Janet Yellen's speech later today following last week' US employment report, which saw the unemployment rate fall to its lowest level in 10 years at 4.5 per cent. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6963. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6890 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6980.

BY SHAMEEM MUSA

Dollar moves higher on flight to safety


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7450 – 0.7575

The Australian dollar fell to three month lows on Friday evening as a combination of risk adverse movements and a sharp fall in Iron Ore prices saw the Aussie dip below US 0.75c. Starting Friday morning at 0.7545, news of an unexpected US Missile strike on Syria saw the market scramble for safe haven assets, the Australian dollar immediately dropped thirty basis points to 0.7515. Spot Iron ore prices were smashed by more than 6% putting further pressure on commodity currencies. Non-Farm Payrolls disappointed markets with only 98,000 jobs created vs last month' rise of over 200K. The Aussie rallied briefly as high as 0.7540 before the US clawed back losses in the North American session. The Australian dollar opens above support at 0.75 on open this morning.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6400 - 1.6600

The Great British Pound edged lower through trade on Friday slipping through 1.2450 and 1.24 following a contraction in manufacturing production and upbeat U.S jobless rates. The Pound marked its first weekly decline in a month extending Thursday' losses and closing in on the critical 1.23 handle. Despite a mixed U.S labour market report wherein the number of new jobs added to the economy feel short of market expectations Sterling was unable to stem the downside flow as investors remain tilted to a bearish bias. Diverging monetary policy platforms will continue to weigh heavy on Cable advances as attentions this week turn to U.K inflation data and wage growth. A poor print could see technical supports at 1.2300/05 tested and a deeper break lower emerge.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar closed the first week of April higher against a basket of major currencies despite a weaker than expected Nonfarm payrolls figure out of the U.S. It was the lowest reading for 2017 growing by 98,000 in March with expectations of 180,000. The payrolls print hasn’t affected market and economists views that the Federal Reserve are expected to raise rates in June and begin balance sheet normalisation in December. EUR/USD was knocked off its perch of 1.0680 down to 1.0577. USD/JPY initially weakened, but regained ground later to finish the session higher at 111.20.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6860 - 0.7020

In late New York trading on Friday the New Zealand dollar fell to its lowest level in almost four weeks. The kiwi dollar traded to a 24-hour low of 0.6929 as New York Fed President William Dudley said moving forward interest rates will be primary policy tool and he didn't believe it will shrink its balance sheet. Data is light out of New Zealand this week in the lead up to the Easter break with the only release Thursday' Business NZ Manufacturing Index. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.6937. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.6890 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.6995.

BY BRETT OTTAWA

Market prepares for US Nonfarm Payrolls Report


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7500 – 0.7650

The Australian dollar again offered little to incite excitement through trade on Thursday failing to recoup early week losses and bounced about amid a 40 point range between 0.7535 and 0.7575.With little domestic data on hand to drive direction the AUD was at the mercy of offshore stimulants and moved marginally lower throughout the day as investors adding support to the USD on larger than expected fall in unemployment claims. Losses were however tempered as market participants warily sat back ahead of a two day summit between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. The risk of hard-line claims of currency manipulation is forcing investors to the sidelines as attentions turn to today' all important non-farm payroll print. The Aussie remains poised to break either side of bullish and bearish channels with a close below the 200 day moving average possibly prompting a shift toward the March low.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6300 – 1.6600

The Great British Pound edged ever so marginally lower through trade on Thursday largely holding onto gains enjoyed following Wednesday' upbeat services print. Slipping back below 1.25 the bound bounced about amid a 50 point range finding support on moves toward 1.2450 and touched intraday lows at 1.2451 largely shrugging off a marked decline in housing equity withdrawals. Having consolidated above the 55 day moving average Sterling looks set to test a near term bullish uptrend with support on moved toward 1.2300, however a consolidated move below this key resistance point could signal a directional shift and open moves toward 1.2150 and January lows near 1.20. Attentions today turn to US Non-Farm Payroll numbers, domestic manufacturing data and BoE governor Carney for direction into the weekend.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US dollar is higher when valued against most of its major currency counterparts. Overnight U.S. Jobless Claims declined by 25,000 to a Five-Week low of 234,000 in the week ended April 1. With the US labor force showing signs of a recovery all eyes will be on tonight' US Nonfarm Payrolls Report which are expected to have added 174K new jobs in March, after adding 235K in February. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.0643, the lowest level in nearly three weeks. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.0610 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.0685.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6925 – 0.7025

The New Zealand Dollar traded within a narrow range yesterday moving between levels of 0.6960 and 0.6990 against the U.S Dollar. With little in the way of local macroeconomic data the local unit looked elsewhere for market direction, US initial claims ended last month on a high note with unemployment claims decreasing by 25k to 234k, this week' improvements were driven by a sharp decrease in claims in NJ, PA and NY states. The data weighed on the New Zealand Dollar which is failing to move past key resistance levels of 70c. Looking ahead, markets are on tender hooks ahead of a meeting between the U.S president Donald Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jingping. President Trump tweeted last week that the summit “will be very difficult”. The New Zealand Dollar slightly higher against the Euro buying 0.6546 and also up against the Japanese Yen at 77.25.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

AUD poised near key short term averages


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7490 – 0.7615

The Australian dollar offered little to excite investors through trade on Wednesday, bouncing amid a 30 point range and failing to recoup losses suffered earlier in the week. Having broken back below the 0.76 handle following the RBA' dovish undertone and a softer than anticipated retails sales print, the AUD looked offshore for further directional impetus with little domestic data to drive direction. Despite a weakening USD the AUD failed to force a recovery and mount a move back above 0.76 and its short term moving average at 0.7614. Despite the early week sell off the bullish uptrend remains largely intact however failure to bounce higher may incite a bearish shift in sentiment and March' 0.75 low suddenly becomes a key resistance point. Attentions into the end of the week turn to U.S Non-Farm payroll numbers as the primary marker driving direction.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6350 – 1.6550

The Great British Pound traded in a tight twenty-point range against the US Dollar in yesterday' Asian session between 1.2425 and 1.2445. Sterling was bolstered early on during European hours by a strong UK Services PMI reading indicating a change in momentum after seeing a five-month low in February. Business activity grew at the strongest rates this year as the GBP/USD cross immediately jumped fifty basis points to 1.2485, before pulling back slightly on a higher than expected American ADP Non-Farm Employment figure. Cable regained its momentum on broad USD weakness following the release of FOMC minutes, as it attempts to push through 1.2500 on open this morning. The Great British Pound is trading higher against the Australian dollar 1.6500 and the New Zealand Dollar 1.7910.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6890 – 0.7020

The New Zealand Dollar remained under 70c during yesterday' session against the US Dollar and dipped to an eventual low of 0.6932 during the US session. Intraday we saw the release of ANZ Commodity prices released by the ANZ National Bank which reported a small increase 0.4% for the month of March vs a print of a 2.0% increase for February, the data did little to move the NZD/USD which still remains under pressure. With stronger than expected U.S Private Sector Employment data the pair was dragged lower to 0.6932, however, the Dollar softened after the release of the FOMC minutes. The Fed is now expecting to begin balance sheet reduction later this year and may take a pause in raising the official short-term interest rate, the NZD/USD recouped all losses to close Wednesday' session at 0.6965. The remainder of week is light on economic releases locally and will take further direction from offshore markets.

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