Compare to bank
AUD / USD
0.7480 - 0.7580
The Australian Dollar moved within a 20-pip range intraday yesterday as financial markets were closed observing the ANZAC public holiday. Once European markets opened the Australian dollar was dragged lower despite more risk appetite as geopolitical risks faded and higher commodity prices. AUD/USD fell from a high of 0.7572 to a low of 0.7520, the pair has since regained some losses at sits at 0.7535 at the time of writing. Locally sees the release of Australian CPI data which analysts consider one of the most important economic indicators. The forecast is expected to increase by 0.6% for Q1 2017.
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
1.6875 - 1.7175
The Great British Pound opened this morning little changed when valued against its US Counterpart with the Sterling reaching an overnight high of 1.2845, up 0.33% on the day. With little to no macroeconomic data out of the UK today all eyes will be on the election polls, and the anticipated size of the Conservative majority in the upcoming UK elections. In the last week, the Pound Sterling has rallied over 300 points against the Greenback after Prime Minister Theresa May called of a snap election. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2833. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.2770 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.2920.
USD, EUR, JPY
The U.S dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Tuesday rallying against the Yen, Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar while touching near six month lows against the Euro. The Greenback surged against the Canadian Dollar and Mexican Peso after the Trump administration announced a Tariff on the import of Lumber from Canada. The announcement is seen as a marker for future trade discussions and highlights the approach of the Trump government toward NAFTA and the future of the 20-year-old trade agreement. The Euro continued higher moving through 1.0950 as investors’ confidence in a centrist victory in next month' French election were bolstered as Emmanuel Macron' victory in the first round of voting was confirmed. The result eliminates a large portion of uncertainty surrounding the future of the Euro and European Union and prompts many market participants to expect a hawkish shift in sentiment from the ECB and a reduction in monetary stimulus. Attentions now turn to the Trump administration and the release of key Tax reforms Wednesday ahead of an ECB meeting and monetary policy comment Thursday as symbols for short to medium term direction.
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.6920 - 0.7020
The New Zealand dollar broke 0.70 against the American Dollar as commodities currencies saw downside movements on thin liquidity, in the biggest daily loss since March. The Kiwi was also hampered by the Canadian Dollar, as tariffs were announced by the United States on soft lumber imports. As New Zealand observed the annual ANZAC public holiday, Kiwi drifted to an intraday low of 0.6985. Markets saw an overnight low of 0.6940 due to a risk on environment, and flows back into the USD. Local data set sees the release of Visitor Arrivals for April and Credit Card spending for the year as the New Zealand dollar opens at 0.6950 this morning.
0.7490 – 0.7605
The Australian Dollar traded within a 30-pip range on Friday between 0.7515 and 0.7546 as geopolitical tensions regarding Syria and North Korea and concerns about the French presidential election continued to weigh on risk sentiment. There was no local data to report from Friday and therefore the Aussie looked offshore for direction. A mixed bag out of the United States capped any moves on the AUD/USD but gapped nearly 40 pips higher on the open this morning following the results of the first round of the French presidential election, early results showing that Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen have qualified for the second round of the election. No local data due today and tomorrow the markets will be closed observing the ANZAC bank holiday.
1.6910 - 1.7110
The Great British Pound ended the week higher across the board boosted after Prime Minister Theresa May' called for a general election that triggered rally in the pound sterling. The GBP/USD reached a six-month high of 1.2836 after Prime Minister Theresa May surprised markets by calling a snap general election in June. Chancellor Philip Hammond said the strength in the Sterling was a sign of confidence that the markets have in the future of the country. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2811. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.2745 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.2860. The pound also hit a four-month high against the Euro of 1.1936.
The Euro jumped upward in early trade this morning rallying to 5 month highs and moving back through 1.09. Early polling suggests both Macron and Le Pen will move through the first round of the French elections easing concerns of a run off between disruptive and radical candidates. Macron is highly touted as the only candidate capable of defeating far right nationalist Marine Le Pen and his advance reduces anxieties and political uncertainties that have plagued the Euro in the run up to this election. As markets prepare now for a Macron victory the upside potential for the Euro comes into focus as the ECB will be expected to maintain its QE reduction plan, while Emerging Markets and risk driven currencies find support. With attentions squarely focused on the French Election we can expect the Euro to push toward 1.10 in the immediate short term with further gains toward 1.12 should Macron take office on May seven.
0.6930 - 0.7130
The New Zealand dollar jumped marginally higher through trade this morning, advancing back above the 0.70 handle. Markets demand for risk based and commodity driven currencies increased in early trade as the likelihood radical far right candidate Marine Le Pen will take office diminished following the first round of voting in the French election. With little domestic data on hand to drive direction the NZD is at the mercy of offshore stimuli and with the French election dominating risk demand the Kiwi could find support as polling is completed. With resistance still firmly entrenched on moves toward 0.7075 and 0.7130 we still expect topside gains to be relatively muted throughout trade today.
0.7460 – 0.7580
The Australian Dollar advanced against the US Dollar on Thursday reaching an overnight high of 0.7546 before settling around 0.7520. With little to no data out today Sunday' first round of voting in the French Presidential elections will be one of the main talking point today across global markets. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7524. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7491 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7604. The Australian dollar is also higher this morning against the Yen (82.28) and the Euro (0.7026).
1.6910 – 1.7110
The Great British Pound opens stronger at 1.2809 against the US Dollar vs this time yesterday as US domestic data failed to impress. Jobless claims for the week ending April 15th rose and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index declined. One of the major European Banks Credit Suisse have said based on latest developments in the UK they are looking to raise their three-month and twelve-month GBP/USD forecast which at the moment sits at 1.25. The main release for the Pound all week is later today being March Retail Sales, expectations are not overly optimistic with analysts expecting headline sales to fall -0.2% compared to the previous month but to rise by 3.6% from the previous year. Meanwhile, as France heads to the polls this weekend for the first round vote markets could see some heavy volatility Monday morning in Australia (Sunday night for Europe) given the high level of undecided voters.
The USD opens marginally stronger against a basket of major currency counterparts this morning having shrugged off early losses as investors responded to stable macroeconomic data sets. Having suffered heavy selling in early trade and relinquishing ground against the Euro the dollar clawed back as steady unemployment claims data and upbeat business activity enabled market participants to maintain views of modest growth and inflation prospects. The Euro touched intraday highs at 1.0777 and maintained three week highs against as analysts place centrist Emmanuel Macron ahead of nationalist Marine Le Pen as the front runner expected to take the Presidency. Attentions through Friday and into the weekend lie squarely on the French election. With the first round of voting due to take place Sunday markets are preparing, in accordance with polls, for Macron and Le Pen to move through into round two and face off ahead of the final vote on May 7. The Euro should remain bullish as support for Macron grows however uncertainty surrounding voter turnout leaves analysts wary of a Brexit/Trump style upset.
0.6960 – 0.7080
The New Zealand dollar relinquished early gains bouncing of intraday highs at 0.7052 as the U.S dollar advanced on expectations of stable growth and an uptick in inflation. While commodities came under pressure as Iron Ore moved lower the Kiwi found support on moves toward the 0.70 handle. The NZD has been relatively well bid on moves toward this psychological level however a break below near term support at 0.6960 could signal entry into a deeper bearish channel while a break below 0.6850 would open the door to wider losses in the face of rising global tensions and political uncertainties. Attentions today remain off shore with risk demand and Euro flows driving direction into the weekend.
0.7440 – 0.7560
<div>The Australian Dollar is slightly weaker today when valued against its US counterpart falling overnight to a low of 0.7490, down 0.86 per cent for the session. Yesterday we saw the release of New Motor Vehicles Sales for the month of March. The March 2017 trend estimate decreased by 0.3% when compared with February 2017. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence will be released today at 11.30am AEST. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7494. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7491 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7609. The Australian dollar is also lower this morning against the Yen (81.64) and the Euro (0.6996).</div>
1.6950 – 1.7150
The Great British Pound has pulled back a shade off six-month highs witnessed on Tuesday against the Greenback, the pair moved lower to 1.2790 however still remains in a strong position buoyed by the UK Prime Minister announcing a snap election to solidify her mandate for Brexit negotiations. Meanwhile, the Greenback remains under pressure as geological tensions play a leading role amongst the markets and expectations of a June rate hike by the US Fed has reduced. Looking at overall weekly percentage changes the Pound has moved over 3% against the Australian Dollar buying 1.7050 and over 2% against the New Zealand Dollar at 1.8260 at the time of writing. The GBP/AUD has now arguably established a short-term uptrend with traders suggesting the pair could be approaching January 2017 highs. Analysts are also expecting the GBP/NZD strength to continue with an eventual target of 1.9000 in sight.
0.6950 – 0.7050
The New Zealand dollar edged lower through trade on Wednesday as commodity prices fell and the US dollar recouped some of the week' earlier losses. Breaking below the 0.70 handle the NZD touched intraday lows at 0.6997 after commodity prices, led by oil and iron ore tumbled and risk appetite continued to wain in the face of increasing tension on the Korean Peninsula. The early week rebound appears vulnerable ahead of Today' CPI print with near term support resting at 0.6950, while a break below 0.6860 could signal a bearish channel has formed. However a stronger than expected print and read above the RBNZ' 2% target could prompt a move back toward key technical resistance points at 0.7075/71. All eyes today turn to CPI and risk appetite for direction into the end of the week.
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