Compare to bank
AUD / USD
0.7900 – 0.8000
Spending the majority of last week up above the 79 US Cents mark the Australian dollar was buoyed by revelations that domestic policy makers remain relatively upbeat when referencing Australia' economic trajectory. Whilst retaining fears over the level of household debt the impacts of a stronger currency also received some air-time. Topping out at an eventual high of 0.7943 towards the back end, this week' economic calendar is notably void of any tier one milestones with the main jolts to underlying volatility expected to be generated from over-seas sources. In what' shaping up as a quieter start, the AUD currently buys 79.26 US Cents.
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
1.6100 – 1.6400
USD, EUR, JPY
In a week which was dominated by political uncertainty, escalating concerns over Donald Trump' administration has been the biggest driver of markets over the past five days. Managing to pull the S&P 500 down to its lowest level in more than a month, it' been politics not economics which has triggered the sell-off, as demand for assets deemed riskier in nature dried up. Firming in the face of adversity, the worlds reserve currency has impressed over the past five days, in most part holding onto the upward trend initiated earlier in month. Whilst the Euro has lost ground, losing 0.5 percent versus the Greenback (1.1757) all eye' this week will be on US Federal Reserve' annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. With the biggest reaction likely to come should Janet Yellen announce a time-frame for balance sheet reductions – Greenback values will be sensitive to the rhetoric delivered on Friday.
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.7250 – 0.7350
The New Zealand dollar advanced against the greenback on Friday as news spread that US President Donald Trump had dumped his political adviser Steve Bannon. The kiwi reached a high of 0.7314 on the back of the announcement. Looking ahead this week on the data front and it all starts with today' monthly Visitor Arrivals data for July. Then on Wednesday traders will be watching for the monthly Trade Balance release for July. Finally on Thursday the central bank will meet at Jackson Hole where Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is due to speak. Investors will be looking for signs of how quantitative easing will end. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7309. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7220 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7330.
0.7850 – 0.7950
The Australian dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Thursday advancing early on stronger than anticipated labour market date before renewed U.S dollar strength forced the currency back below 0.79 U.S cents. Bolstered early the AUD touched intraday highs at 0.7964 after employment change data showed near on 30,000 jobs were added to the economy throughout July while the unemployment rate fell to 5.6%. The upbeat print marks the fifth consecutive month of labour market improvements and has some investors calling for the RBA to revise its policy outlook, however the spectre of stagnant wage growth capped gains and a renewed push toward 0.80 stalled. Moving lower through offshore trade the Aussie broke below 0.79 on renewed demand for haven assets as continued White House instability and Spanish Terror attacks sapped investors’ appetite for risk. Currently buying 0.7887 U.S. cents attentions now turn to offshore stimuli for direction into the weekend as we anticipate support at 0.7830 with resistance again on moves approaching 0.7960/0.80.
1.6200 – 1.6400
The Greenback saw gains overnight, its biggest upside movements after the release of July minutes by the ECB and a general risk off tone. The DXY saw positive territory and is up 0.23% for the day, and looks to continue its run up to 94.00. Positive upside recently by the Euro was halted as the ECB minutes showed concerns of recent strength in the currency, causing the EUR/USD cross to drop 1.2% from tops of 1.1795 to an intraday low of 1.1665. The Greenback was weaker against the Japanese Yen as Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan warned the market to be patient on further interest rate rises, as they wait to see further progress on waning inflation figures. Further bids into the Yen were seen after a terrorist attack in the centre of Barcelona, with risk off tones pushing the USD/JPY position below 110 for the day and continues to slide on open to 1.0940 on open this morning.
The New Zealand dollar moved marginally lower through trade on Thursday on renewed demand for safe haven currencies. News of a terror attack in Spain and ongoing uncertainty within the Trump administration sapped investors’ appetite for risk and forced the NZD below 0.73 U.S cents. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7281 the Kiwi opens this morning buying 0.7285 as attentions remain offshore with direction into the weekend driven primarily by risk flows.
The greenback rally seen this week took a turn for the worse overnight, reversing gains seen over the past 48 hours. The selloff started with the release of FOMC minutes in the North American session as members were split over the future path of interest rate rises. The main concerns over low inflation levels, currently below the target rate of 2% look to be a key factor in movements in the U.S Dollar with the next round of CPI figures out September 13th. Markets are currently pricing in very little chance of a hike in next month' meeting, with a 50% chance by year end. The DXY which measures a basket of currencies was weaker and has lost 0.38% for the day. The EUR hit fresh highs of 1.1775 this morning after FOMC minutes. Earlier the EUR saw lows of 1.1680 after it was noted ECB President Mario Draghi would not be speaking at Jackson Hole on monetary policy outlook. USD/JPY fell to support at the 110 handle overnight, as investors look towards the release of unemployment claims this evening.
The New Zealand dollar rallied through 0.73 U.S. cents during trade on Wednesday as wide spread U.S dollar weakness fueled renewed demand for commodity linked currencies. Bouncing off key technical supports near 0.7230 the Kiwi surged to intraday highs at 0.7320 as investors corrected U.S monetary policy expectations following the Federal Reserve' release of if July FOMC meeting minutes. Concerns surrounding inflation and the possibility of revisions in how the key macroeconomic metric is measured forced analysts to downplay the possibility of a December rate hike and pushed the greenback lower across the board. Opening this morning buying 0.7308 U.S cents attentions now turn to domestic PPI data as a precursor for consumer lead inflation and U.S unemployment claims for direction throughout trade on Thursday.
0.7750 – 0.7875
The Australian dollar moved lower through trade on Tuesday marking a second consecutive daily depreciation; testing supports at 0.7850 and 0.7830. The RBA' latest minutes offered little to excite investors and did little to inspire any upward AUD momentum instead leaving the currency at the mercy of offshore stimuli. As risk appetite returns to the market the U.S dollar recovery continued and found additional support in upbeat and stronger than anticipated retail sales data. Forcing the Aussie through one month lows at 0.7809 the greenback touched three week highs. Opening this morning buying 0.7819 U.S cents attentions now turn to domestic wage price growth and a heavy U.S macroeconomic docket headlined by FOMC meeting minutes for direction through midweek trade.
1.6300 – 1.6600
A lift in United States Retail Sales for the month of July by 0.6% saw the U.S. Dollar advance to its highest level in four weeks. Supported by a selloff in safe haven currencies, The US Dollar index (DXY) advanced by another 0.4%. Supportive of the rally was the latest Empire State Manufacturing Index reading which jumped to its highest level in three years. With the broader rally on the Greenback, Euro pulled back to support at the 1.17 handle. USD/JPY rallied to a high overnight of 110.85 after a reversal in risk sentiment and up 1% for the day. Markets look ahead to the release of FOMC meeting minutes this evening.
0.7180 – 0.7280
The New Zealand dollar moved lower through trade on Tuesday as upbeat U.S retail sales data and a renewed appetite for risk saw investors buy back into the world' base currency. With little domestic data on hand to drive direction the kiwi suffered at the hands of easing geopolitical tensions and an increasing demand for riskier assets, such as U.S stocks. Consolidating moves below 0.73 the NZD touched intraday lows at 0.7229 and opens this morning buying just 0.7233 U.S cents. Attentions now turn to a raft of U.S macroeconomic data and FOMC meeting minutes for direction through Wednesday. An upbeat print and hawkish Federal Reserve could prompt a move back below 0.72 and test of supports at 0.7190.
0.7800 – 0.7900
The Australian dollar having enjoyed a brief early morning rally moved lower through trade on Monday nearing one month lows and touching 0.7848. With little domestic data on hand to drive direction the AUD succumb to renewed USD strength and an uptick in risk appetite as investors’ fears eased in the wake of lessening brusque bombast between Trump and Pyongyang. As the war of words dissipated over the weekend markets looked to correct the run on Safe Havens and sold down JPY and CHF holdings to buy back into stocks and the US dollar forcing the Aussie toward key technical supports at 0.7830/50. Opening this morning at 0.7853 attentions now turn to the RBA' meeting minutes and U.S retail sales for direction through Tuesday.
1.6400 – 1.6600
The USD was one of the best performing currencies overnight as movements were seen out of safe haven currencies as geopolitical risk waned. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.38% at the time of writing as both Japanese Yen and Swiss Francs lost ground against the Greenback. The U.S Dollar also saw gains as Fed Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley was more hawkish on monetary policy as he is still supportive of another hike this year along with the trimming of the current balance sheet in September. The Euro saw selling pressure to start the week, falling through support at 1.1800 to finish the North American session at 1.1775. Bids were favoured higher on the USD/JPY cross after recovering from last week losses, seeing intraday highs of 1.0978. With major markets in Europe observing a public holiday, movements are expected to be light heading into United States Retail sales.
0.7200 – 0.7320
The New Zealand dollar slipped back below 0.73 U.S cents through trade on Monday as investors unwound safe haven plays and bought back into stocks and the US dollar. Tensions between the US and North Korea appeared to have eased over the weekend with the war of words that plagued markets last week abating, prompting markets to sell down JPY and CHF holdings. Having touched intraday highs at 0.7322 following stronger than anticipated retail sales the NZD shifted lower as risk appetite returned and markets looked to correct the recent greenback sell off. Touching intraday lows at 0.7286 attentions remain with geopolitical developments and U.S retail sales for direction through Tuesday.
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