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BY MATT RICHARDSON

Investors square positions ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7830 – 0.7980

The Australian dollar remains little changed against the greenback on Tuesday trading within a 27 point range over the last 24-hours. The Australian macroeconomic calendar has little to offer this week with no scheduled data releases. US dollar found some support overnight on renewed optimism surrounding the prospect for US tax reform. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7912, slightly down from this time yesterday 0.7938. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7880 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7945.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6050 – 1.6350

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar' depreciation stalled through trade on Tuesday as the worlds base currency staged strong gains against both the Euro and Yen. Softer than anticipated German and Eurozone economic sentiment prompted a correction in the 19 nation combined unit as investors positioned themselves ahead of this week' Jackson Hole symposium. Slipping back below 1.18 the Euro suffered its largest single day depreciation in over a fortnight against the USD touching intraday lows at 1.1747; while the dollar advance through 1.09 and 1.0950 Japanese Yen. With little headline data driving direction markets are simply adjusting positions ahead of key commentary from Central Bank figureheads Mario Draghi and Jante Yellen. While both are expected to deliver a largely unchanged rhetoric any implication to tighter monetary policy conditions could prompt a directional shift. The Euro' recent appreciation has been largely led by expectations the ECB will begin tapering its quantitative easing program, however should Draghi continue to proffer a cautious bearing we may see a deeper Euro correction.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7230 – 0.7330

The New Zealand Dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. The kiwi remains under broad-based downward pressure falling to an overnight low of 0.7272, down from the previous day' high of 0.7334. Meanwhile the Aussie continues to outperform the Kiwi amidst the backdrop of the ongoing rally in Commodity Prices. The NZD/AUD pair his holding around 0.92 level currently trading at 0.9201 (1.0868). Today on the macroeconomic calendar all eyes are on the NZ monthly Trade Balance data for July which is due out at 8.45am.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Greenback slumps as Geo-political tensions re-ignited


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7830 – 0.8030

The Australian dollar advanced against the greenback on Monday reaching a 24-hour high of 0.7950. Iron ore spot markets rallied higher to $79.93 a tonne for a third consecutive session. The Australian macroeconomic calendar remains empty this week. Today all eyes will be on the Aussie dollar if it can break through a monthly high 0.7962. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7938. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7910 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7965.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6080 – 1.6380

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar moved lower through trade on Monday suffering its fourth consecutive daily depreciation as geo-political tensions escalate and investors square positions leading into this week' Jackson Hole symposium of central banks. Analysts and investors looked to safe haven assets after the U.S, South Korea and their allies engaged in simulated War Games in response to North Korea' developing nuclear capabilities, sparking rebuke from Pyongyang and reigniting tensions between the rogue state and the US. The Dollar fell through 108.70 JPY touching intraday lows at 108.65 while the Euro moved back through 1.18 to touch session highs at 1.1831. Attentions now turn to this week' Jackson Hole convention of Central Bank heads. The annual meeting may provide an insight into monetary policy expectations moving through the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2017. While we anticipate key central bank figures in Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will maintain the status quo and refrain from delivering any updated policy advice the symposium is an opportunity for investors to better assess possible shifts in central banks forward guidance with an eye on a hawkish undertone as a catalyst to spark direction.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The New Zealand dollar remains little changed against the greenback on Monday trading within a 33 point range over the last 24-hours. The kiwi reached an overnight high of 0.7337 as investors continue to fret about the Trump administration' future legislative prospects. The quiet trading conditions are expected to continue right through to the end of the week with the only scheduled data release being Wednesday' monthly Trade Balance for July. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7325.

BY JOEL HOLMES

FOMC to take centre stage amid flat start


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7900 – 0.8000

Spending the majority of last week up above the 79 US Cents mark the Australian dollar was buoyed by revelations that domestic policy makers remain relatively upbeat when referencing Australia' economic trajectory. Whilst retaining fears over the level of household debt the impacts of a stronger currency also received some air-time. Topping out at an eventual high of 0.7943 towards the back end, this week' economic calendar is notably void of any tier one milestones with the main jolts to underlying volatility expected to be generated from over-seas sources. In what' shaping up as a quieter start, the AUD currently buys 79.26 US Cents.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6100 – 1.6400

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

In a week which was dominated by political uncertainty, escalating concerns over Donald Trump' administration has been the biggest driver of markets over the past five days. Managing to pull the S&P 500 down to its lowest level in more than a month, it' been politics not economics which has triggered the sell-off, as demand for assets deemed riskier in nature dried up. Firming in the face of adversity, the worlds reserve currency has impressed over the past five days, in most part holding onto the upward trend initiated earlier in month. Whilst the Euro has lost ground, losing 0.5 percent versus the Greenback (1.1757) all eye' this week will be on US Federal Reserve' annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. With the biggest reaction likely to come should Janet Yellen announce a time-frame for balance sheet reductions – Greenback values will be sensitive to the rhetoric delivered on Friday.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The New Zealand dollar advanced against the greenback on Friday as news spread that US President Donald Trump had dumped his political adviser Steve Bannon. The kiwi reached a high of 0.7314 on the back of the announcement. Looking ahead this week on the data front and it all starts with today' monthly Visitor Arrivals data for July. Then on Wednesday traders will be watching for the monthly Trade Balance release for July. Finally on Thursday the central bank will meet at Jackson Hole where Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is due to speak. Investors will be looking for signs of how quantitative easing will end. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7309. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7220 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7330.

BY JOEL HOLMES

Risk Off Sentiment - Australian Dollar below 79 US Cents


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7850 – 0.7950

The Australian dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Thursday advancing early on stronger than anticipated labour market date before renewed U.S dollar strength forced the currency back below 0.79 U.S cents. Bolstered early the AUD touched intraday highs at 0.7964 after employment change data showed near on 30,000 jobs were added to the economy throughout July while the unemployment rate fell to 5.6%. The upbeat print marks the fifth consecutive month of labour market improvements and has some investors calling for the RBA to revise its policy outlook, however the spectre of stagnant wage growth capped gains and a renewed push toward 0.80 stalled. Moving lower through offshore trade the Aussie broke below 0.79 on renewed demand for haven assets as continued White House instability and Spanish Terror attacks sapped investors’ appetite for risk. Currently buying 0.7887 U.S. cents attentions now turn to offshore stimuli for direction into the weekend as we anticipate support at 0.7830 with resistance again on moves approaching 0.7960/0.80.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6200 – 1.6400

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The Greenback saw gains overnight, its biggest upside movements after the release of July minutes by the ECB and a general risk off tone. The DXY saw positive territory and is up 0.23% for the day, and looks to continue its run up to 94.00. Positive upside recently by the Euro was halted as the ECB minutes showed concerns of recent strength in the currency, causing the EUR/USD cross to drop 1.2% from tops of 1.1795 to an intraday low of 1.1665. The Greenback was weaker against the Japanese Yen as Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan warned the market to be patient on further interest rate rises, as they wait to see further progress on waning inflation figures. Further bids into the Yen were seen after a terrorist attack in the centre of Barcelona, with risk off tones pushing the USD/JPY position below 110 for the day and continues to slide on open to 1.0940 on open this morning.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The New Zealand dollar moved marginally lower through trade on Thursday on renewed demand for safe haven currencies. News of a terror attack in Spain and ongoing uncertainty within the Trump administration sapped investors’ appetite for risk and forced the NZD below 0.73 U.S cents. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7281 the Kiwi opens this morning buying 0.7285 as attentions remain offshore with direction into the weekend driven primarily by risk flows.

BY JOEL HOLMES

Australian Dollar Trades Above 79 US Cents


Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6100 – 1.6400

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The greenback rally seen this week took a turn for the worse overnight, reversing gains seen over the past 48 hours. The selloff started with the release of FOMC minutes in the North American session as members were split over the future path of interest rate rises. The main concerns over low inflation levels, currently below the target rate of 2% look to be a key factor in movements in the U.S Dollar with the next round of CPI figures out September 13th. Markets are currently pricing in very little chance of a hike in next month' meeting, with a 50% chance by year end. The DXY which measures a basket of currencies was weaker and has lost 0.38% for the day. The EUR hit fresh highs of 1.1775 this morning after FOMC minutes. Earlier the EUR saw lows of 1.1680 after it was noted ECB President Mario Draghi would not be speaking at Jackson Hole on monetary policy outlook. USD/JPY fell to support at the 110 handle overnight, as investors look towards the release of unemployment claims this evening.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The New Zealand dollar rallied through 0.73 U.S. cents during trade on Wednesday as wide spread U.S dollar weakness fueled renewed demand for commodity linked currencies. Bouncing off key technical supports near 0.7230 the Kiwi surged to intraday highs at 0.7320 as investors corrected U.S monetary policy expectations following the Federal Reserve' release of if July FOMC meeting minutes. Concerns surrounding inflation and the possibility of revisions in how the key macroeconomic metric is measured forced analysts to downplay the possibility of a December rate hike and pushed the greenback lower across the board. Opening this morning buying 0.7308 U.S cents attentions now turn to domestic PPI data as a precursor for consumer lead inflation and U.S unemployment claims for direction throughout trade on Thursday.

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