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By Matt Richardson

All eyes on Jackson Hole and key Central Bank Commentary


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7830 – 0.8030

Whilst remaining steady, the Australian dollar struggled to advance during Thursday' session, idling between a slim trading band when valued against its US Counterpart. Limiting its momentum, investors have become increasingly cautious in the lead up to this evening' Central Bank gathering with political wrangling over the US debt ceiling also keeping a number of participants sidelined. During a window which has generally supported the Greenback, tonight' Jackson Hole Symposium has the potential to dramatically change the near-term make-up of markets. Opening marginally lower the Australian dollar currently buys 78.97 US Cents.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6030 – 1.6330

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar steadied through trade on Thursday recouping a small portion of the losses suffered through trade on Wednesday following Presidents Trumps threats to NAFTA and suggestion of a wider government shutdown. As focus shifted back to macroeconomic indicators ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium the dollar moved back through 1.09 JPY to touch intraday day highs at 1.0960 while the Euro moved through 1.18 to 1.1784. Driven by a reasonably stable macroeconomic set the dollar found momentum as investors square positions ahead of key commentary from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi. Both central bank figureheads are due to address the Jackson Hole Symposium today with analyst closely attuned to the rhetoric and fundamental undertone of their respective commentaries. Should Yellen drive home the Fed' desire to push through a December rate hike we may see some dollar strength and a shift in focus back to the Federal Reserve monetary policy.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7130 – 0.7280

The New Zealand dollar remains little changed against the greenback on Thursday. Overnight the kiwi reached a high of 0.7235. There has been little news reported this week, a light macroeconomic calendar. Yesterday New Zealand' trade balance data surprised to the upside in July as it rose to $85m, while economists expected a deficit of $200m. The market now turns its attention to the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting this evening. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7204. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7180 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7330.

By Matt Richardson

Greenback under pressure as trump threatens NAFTA and Government Shutdowns


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7830 – 0.7980

The Australian dollar remains little changed against the greenback on Wednesday falling to a weekly low of 0.7882. The Australian macroeconomic calendar once again has no scheduled data releases set for today. The Aussie remains on a neutral footing around the 0.7900 level while the lack of local data leaves traders focussed on the Jackson Hole meeting in the US tonight. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7906, slightly down from this time yesterday 0.7912. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7880 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7940.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6050 – 1.6350

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar retreated through trade on Wednesday giving up gains against the Euro, Yen and basket of major currency counterparts. The dollar met selling pressure as markets appetite for risk was tested following comments from President Trump suggesting he would end the North American Free Trade Agreement. Talks between the US, Mexico and Canada seemingly broke down again on Tuesday as divisions between the three leader' expectations widened. Trump even went so as far to suggest he would shut down government and deny increases in the debt ceiling if he was unable to obtain funding to build his Mexico border wall. Falling back through 109 JPY and giving back 1.18 to the 19 nation Euro the dollar opens this morning broadly lower. The ongoing stream of uncertainty emanating from the White House continues to weigh on the worlds base currency as attentions turn to Central Bank monetary policy expectations on day one of the Jackson Hole symposium. A hawkish or upbeat Janet Yellen may be the fodder needed to spark a revival in dollar demand and break the recent bearish downtrend.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7180 – 0.7280

The New Zealand dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. Overnight saw the Kiwi fall to a low of 0.7197 hanging near a 6-week low. The kiwi dollar was the worst performer yesterday in the Asian region, off as much as 0.7 per cent after the New Zealand Treasury reduced its economic growth forecast for the year to June to 2.6 percent from 3.2 percent previously, and cut its future growth estimate for the year to June 2018 to 3.5 per cent from 3.7 per cent. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7226. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7125 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7280.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Investors square positions ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7830 – 0.7980

The Australian dollar remains little changed against the greenback on Tuesday trading within a 27 point range over the last 24-hours. The Australian macroeconomic calendar has little to offer this week with no scheduled data releases. US dollar found some support overnight on renewed optimism surrounding the prospect for US tax reform. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7912, slightly down from this time yesterday 0.7938. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7880 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7945.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6050 – 1.6350

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar' depreciation stalled through trade on Tuesday as the worlds base currency staged strong gains against both the Euro and Yen. Softer than anticipated German and Eurozone economic sentiment prompted a correction in the 19 nation combined unit as investors positioned themselves ahead of this week' Jackson Hole symposium. Slipping back below 1.18 the Euro suffered its largest single day depreciation in over a fortnight against the USD touching intraday lows at 1.1747; while the dollar advance through 1.09 and 1.0950 Japanese Yen. With little headline data driving direction markets are simply adjusting positions ahead of key commentary from Central Bank figureheads Mario Draghi and Jante Yellen. While both are expected to deliver a largely unchanged rhetoric any implication to tighter monetary policy conditions could prompt a directional shift. The Euro' recent appreciation has been largely led by expectations the ECB will begin tapering its quantitative easing program, however should Draghi continue to proffer a cautious bearing we may see a deeper Euro correction.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7230 – 0.7330

The New Zealand Dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. The kiwi remains under broad-based downward pressure falling to an overnight low of 0.7272, down from the previous day' high of 0.7334. Meanwhile the Aussie continues to outperform the Kiwi amidst the backdrop of the ongoing rally in Commodity Prices. The NZD/AUD pair his holding around 0.92 level currently trading at 0.9201 (1.0868). Today on the macroeconomic calendar all eyes are on the NZ monthly Trade Balance data for July which is due out at 8.45am.

BY MATT RICHARDSON

Greenback slumps as Geo-political tensions re-ignited


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7830 – 0.8030

The Australian dollar advanced against the greenback on Monday reaching a 24-hour high of 0.7950. Iron ore spot markets rallied higher to $79.93 a tonne for a third consecutive session. The Australian macroeconomic calendar remains empty this week. Today all eyes will be on the Aussie dollar if it can break through a monthly high 0.7962. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7938. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7910 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7965.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6080 – 1.6380

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar moved lower through trade on Monday suffering its fourth consecutive daily depreciation as geo-political tensions escalate and investors square positions leading into this week' Jackson Hole symposium of central banks. Analysts and investors looked to safe haven assets after the U.S, South Korea and their allies engaged in simulated War Games in response to North Korea' developing nuclear capabilities, sparking rebuke from Pyongyang and reigniting tensions between the rogue state and the US. The Dollar fell through 108.70 JPY touching intraday lows at 108.65 while the Euro moved back through 1.18 to touch session highs at 1.1831. Attentions now turn to this week' Jackson Hole convention of Central Bank heads. The annual meeting may provide an insight into monetary policy expectations moving through the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2017. While we anticipate key central bank figures in Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will maintain the status quo and refrain from delivering any updated policy advice the symposium is an opportunity for investors to better assess possible shifts in central banks forward guidance with an eye on a hawkish undertone as a catalyst to spark direction.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The New Zealand dollar remains little changed against the greenback on Monday trading within a 33 point range over the last 24-hours. The kiwi reached an overnight high of 0.7337 as investors continue to fret about the Trump administration' future legislative prospects. The quiet trading conditions are expected to continue right through to the end of the week with the only scheduled data release being Wednesday' monthly Trade Balance for July. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7325.

BY JOEL HOLMES

FOMC to take centre stage amid flat start


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7900 – 0.8000

Spending the majority of last week up above the 79 US Cents mark the Australian dollar was buoyed by revelations that domestic policy makers remain relatively upbeat when referencing Australia' economic trajectory. Whilst retaining fears over the level of household debt the impacts of a stronger currency also received some air-time. Topping out at an eventual high of 0.7943 towards the back end, this week' economic calendar is notably void of any tier one milestones with the main jolts to underlying volatility expected to be generated from over-seas sources. In what' shaping up as a quieter start, the AUD currently buys 79.26 US Cents.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6100 – 1.6400

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

In a week which was dominated by political uncertainty, escalating concerns over Donald Trump' administration has been the biggest driver of markets over the past five days. Managing to pull the S&P 500 down to its lowest level in more than a month, it' been politics not economics which has triggered the sell-off, as demand for assets deemed riskier in nature dried up. Firming in the face of adversity, the worlds reserve currency has impressed over the past five days, in most part holding onto the upward trend initiated earlier in month. Whilst the Euro has lost ground, losing 0.5 percent versus the Greenback (1.1757) all eye' this week will be on US Federal Reserve' annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. With the biggest reaction likely to come should Janet Yellen announce a time-frame for balance sheet reductions – Greenback values will be sensitive to the rhetoric delivered on Friday.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The New Zealand dollar advanced against the greenback on Friday as news spread that US President Donald Trump had dumped his political adviser Steve Bannon. The kiwi reached a high of 0.7314 on the back of the announcement. Looking ahead this week on the data front and it all starts with today' monthly Visitor Arrivals data for July. Then on Wednesday traders will be watching for the monthly Trade Balance release for July. Finally on Thursday the central bank will meet at Jackson Hole where Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen is due to speak. Investors will be looking for signs of how quantitative easing will end. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7309. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7220 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7330.

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