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BY OFX

Investors nervous ahead of key Trump address


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7300 - 0.7400

The Australian dollar bounced within a relatively tight trading band throughout Tuesday holding onto recent gains and consolidating moves above 0.73U.S cents. Wider USD weakness enable the AUD to touch intraday highs at 0.7384 as investors looked to sell down Greenback holding ahead of upcoming risk events. President Elect Donald Trump is due to conduct his first news conference prompting nervousness across financial markets. There is a wider concern the Republican will take a hard line approach to trade policy and relations with China while tapering down the high level of fiscal stimulus promised throughout the electoral campaign. The AUD has enjoyed strong gains through the first part of 2017 as investor' square positions and the pace of the USD' upward rally stalls. Having broken resistance at 0.7290 and 0.7350 analysts are looking to a consolidated move beyond 0.7395 before pushing back toward the psychological 0.75 handle.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6450 - 1.6650

The Great British found support through trade on Tuesday bouncing on moves approaching 1.21. Having suffered heavy selling following comments from Prime Minster Theresa May and German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the weekend Sterling moved back through 1.2150 to touch 1.2170. Wider USD weakness ahead of President Elect Donald Trump' first press conference today prompted a Greenback sell off. Nervousness surrounding trump' stance on China and Trade policies saw investors take profits and consolidate USD longs ahead of the political risk event. Attentions today turn to the President Elect while Bank of England Governor Mark carney Testifies to U.K Parliaments Treasury Committee. With inflation expected to overshoot the BoE' 2% target Carney could well suggest a shift away from the current easing platform is on the table thus bolstering demand for the GBP, while an uptick in Manufacturing and Industrial activity will consolidate a recent recovery in the outlook for growth and heighten calls for a move away from the current easing cycle. Should Cable make another failed attempt at breaking through 1.21 we could see a considered rebound and move back toward the first point of technical resistance at 1.2270/1.2300.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

Commodity prices were the talk of the town in China during Tuesday' trading session as we saw movements in coal and iron ore rally up to the capped daily limit of 8%. In further signs of renewed strength by the 2nd largest economy, Chinese producer prices saw a print of 5.5% up 1.6% from November and the highest reading in five years. Consumer Inflation was also steady at 2.1% with the Chinese government now targeting economic growth rates of 6.5-7% this year. Equities were supported by the rally in commodity prices, both the Nasdaq and FTSE hit new record highs, and the US Dollar coming off an intraday high of 116.30 against the Japanese Yen. Market participants continue to be cautious on their long USD positions as President elect Donald Trump speaks at his first press conference on Wednesday in New York before taking office on January 20th.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6940 - 0.7040

The New Zealand Dollar began the session strongly yesterday climbing higher against the US Dollar to 0.7045 but once again faced selling pressures around 0.7040. Investors continued to worry about Brexit and the impact it may have which gave support to the Greenback against a basket of major currencies. NZD/USD fell to a low of 0.6958 and with continued expectations for higher interest rates this year in the US the Kiwi will struggle short-term to break 0.7040. Light this week with macroeconomic data so any moves will be assisted by offshore events.

BY OFX

Sterling tumbles on heightened fears of hard Brexit


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7300 – 0.7400

The Australian dollar rose on Monday mainly due to renewed weakness in the US dollar. The Aussie broke through the 0.73 level in early trade touching a daily high of 0.7373, which was the highest level since December 15. Yesterday' Building Approvals for the month of November rebounded, up by 7.0% on a monthly basis. The pair is currently trading at 0.7352. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7340 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7390. Attentions now turn to today' Retail Sales´ figures for the month of November. The forecast for the November release is for an increase of 0.4%, following a gain of 0.5% in October.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6350 - 1.6750

The Great British Pound collapsed against all major currency pairs through trade on Monday suffering heavy sell offs following comments from Prime Minister Theresa May. Rhetoric proffered by the PM highlighted concerns among investors the UK may lose access to the European Union' single market. May again reiterated the importance of ushering in new laws to manage immigration, suggesting she was not willing to compromise controls to stay in the single market. Sterling plunged over 1% against the USD moving through 1.22 and 1.2150 touching intraday lows at 1.2127. A hard Brexit now seems a certainty opening the GBP to further downside moves beyond support at 1.2080 and 1.20. Attentions today will again be with Brexit chatter ahead of Prime Minster May' address to parliament during question time on Wednesday.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US Dollar Index which measures a basket of currencies against the Greenback continued its retreat overnight. The market continues to digest the uncertainty of the future relationship between US and Russia in a Trump-led America. USD/JPY declined from intraday highs in the Asian session in light trading of 117.53 to test support levels at 116.00 on open this morning. Overnight once dovish Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren remarked for the US Central bank to step up interest rate increases to curb potential inflationary pressures. Eager eyes will be watching five other Fed Policymakers give speeches this week for further news on any potential monetary policy changes. Elsewhere the EUR/USD cross was trading slightly higher at 1.0570 as the European Union unemployment rate remained steady at 9.8% and German Trade balance figures were positive. Investors turn their attention to the Asia today as Chinese CPI and PPI data is released for the first time this year with a slight downturn expected. Reminbi gains continue to put pressure on the US Dollar with officials looking to pair recent declines in December.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6930 - 0.7130

The New Zealand dollar staged a recovery through trade on Monday recouping losses suffered into the end of last week and moving back through 0.70 U.S cents. The Kiwi rallied as investors took advantage of a Greenback slump prompted by a reduction in wider risk appetite, a fall in U.S treasury yields and a sharp drop across U.S stocks. The NZD touched intraday highs at 0.7032 before selling pressures and profit taking forced a small pull back. Moves through 0.7030 are likely to be tested in the short term with a break and close above this level opening the door to a possible move back through 0.71 and 0.7130. Attentions again turn to wider sentiment for direction with no headline macroeconomic data on hand to drive direction.

BY OFX

USD rebounds on stable labour market data


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The Australian Dollar closed the week lower when valued against its US counterpart on the back of Friday' robust US jobs report. US non-farm payrolls increased by 156,000 in December, slightly down on the 175,000 forecast, however there was a 26,000 upward revision to the previous months’ job gains. The Aussie pulled back from a weekly high of 0.7356 falling to a low of 0.7285 during Friday evening trade. The pair is currently trading at 0.7294. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7270 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7315. Attentions now turn to today' Building Approvals and ANZ Job Advertisements.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6650 - 1.6850

The Great British pound relinquished much of the gains enjoyed through Trade on Wednesday and Thursday suffering heavy selling pressure Friday. The USD dollar rallied across the board through trade on Friday bolstered by a stronger than anticipated job' report. Despite a decline in the number of Jobs added to the economy average hourly earnings increased, putting pressure on wage growth and opening the door for a possible uptick in consumer driven inflation. The GBP fell through 1.23 and 1.2250 to touch intraday lows at 1.2240 as wary investors look to a Supreme Court decision on parliaments roll in Brexit negotiations for wider Pound direction in the coming fortnight. Attentions today turn to a relatively light macroeconomic calendar for direction as political uncertainties drive direction.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US Dollar reversed its short term sell off despite non-farm payrolls missing expectations by 20,000 jobs .The release showed an increase of 156,000 jobs in the last month of 2016. Unemployment figures remained steady (4.7%) with rising wage pressures heading into the New Year. JPY was hit hardest on Friday evening trading losing 1.2% against the US Dollar and closing on the 117.00 mark. The EUR/USD uptrend paused as it pulled off resistance levels at 1.06 and will test the 1.5115 handle. Close analysis of the Trump administration takes shape this week as nominees are expected to be cleared in a Republican controlled senate. USD long trades continue to weaken as the speed of policy implementation continues to be unknown as the first policy statements draw closer. Flows will be light on Monday as Japan observes a bank holiday with close eyes on the world' second largest economy on Tuesday as China releases its inflation figures.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6900 - 0.7000

The New Zealand dollar relinquished hard fought gains enjoyed through trade on Wednesday and Thursday moving lower into the weekly close and slipping back below 0.70 U.S cents. Greenback selling pressure eased through trade on Friday as non-farm payroll numbers and improved wage growth showed the U.S labour market remains steady prompting calls for consumer driven inflation and additional rate hikes through 2017. The USD advanced against a series of major currency counterparts and the Kiwi suffered. With relatively strong resistance in place, moves beyond 0.7030 will likely be defended and meet selling pressures in the near term. With no macroeconomic data at hand today direction will likely stem again from U.S data sets and wider market sentiment.

BY OFX

USD tumbles as China attempts to curb capital outflows


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7260 – 0.7380

The Australian Dollar once again continued to climb on the back of profit taking and consolidation as investors begin the New Year with fresh outlooks curbing the strength of the US Dollar. Assisting the Australian Dollar' strength were data releases locally and out of China, the AIG index came in strong at 57.7 in December which was the highest monthly result since 2007 along with China' Caxin Services PMI picked up steam in December to rise to 54.4; PMI data is globally recognised as a reading above 50 indicates expansion. Today we see the release of Trade Balance which is expected to fall by -0.500B and the all-important US employment data

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6800 – 1.7000

Overnight the Great British Pound continued to strengthen against the Greenback after another positive data release. Services PMI report has helped the Sterling break through 1.2400 level. The December services purchasing managers index rose for a third consecutive month to 56.2 up from the previous month 55.2, the fastest expansion since July 2015. Having reached an overnight high of 1.2434, the pair is currently trading at 1.2416. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.2380 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.2494. A quiet session expected ahead tonight with little to no economic data due.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S dollar sell off continued through trade on Thursday moving through three week lows when valued against a raft of key currency counterparts. Wednesday' downward correction was extended as investors continued to square positions and take profits reacting to a rise in borrowing cost in Hong Kong. Markets sent the CNH soaring higher to touch near two month highs, markings it largest two day appreciation in 7 years and amplifying the selling pressure mounting on the world' base currency. The Dollar plunged 1.5% against the Yen while the Euro moved easily through resistance at 1.05 to touch intraday highs at 1.0613. Despite an uptick in services data and a better than expected decline in jobless claims USD losses were compounded by a softer than anticipated preliminary Non-Farm payroll report suggesting employment gains in December missed their mark. With an increasing sentiment the recent bullish run may have peaked investors are simply squaring positions leading into today' non-farm payroll numbers and wage growth reports for direction through the end of the year' first week of trading.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6930 – 0.7130

The New Zealand dollar advanced through 0.70 U.S cents through trade on Thursday benefiting from diminishing USD demand. The Kiwi touched intraday highs at 0.7036 as investors sold down USD holdings after Chinese policy makers increased borrowing costs to curb capital outflows and stem the Greenbacks upward momentum. With little macroeconomic data supporting the upward rally the Kiwi' bullish run looks stretched on moves approaching 0.7050 with further gains likely to stem from USD weakness as opposed to Kiwi strength with direction today derived from Key U.S labour market data.

BY OFX

Dollar weakens on release of FOMC minutes


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7210 – 0.7310

The Australian Dollar gathered momentum against the USD yesterday moving from levels of 72c and touching a high of 0.7282 just before the end of the New York session. The biggest jump was during the European session as strong manufacturing data indicated signs of recovery within the global economy. Over in the US, the minutes of the Fed' meeting didn’t provide much more than what we had learned from their statement last month however, it was noted that Fed officials focused on the impact of potential fiscal stimulus and saw more upside risk to economic growth forecasts under the new Trump administration. This morning sees the release of Australia' AIG index which reports on the level of business conditions in Australia, with previous months readings reporting industry expansions.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6860 – 1.6980

The Great British Pound recovered some ground on Wednesday, but overall remains weak against the greenback. The Sterling reached an overnight high of 1.2352 following the release of Construction PMI which improved to 54.2 for the month of December, up from 52.8 in November, surpassing the estimate for the December release of 52.6 and climbing to an 11-month high. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.2240 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.2380. The pair is currently trading at 1.2318. Attentions now turn to Thursday' Services PMI data release. The forecast for the December release is 54.8 slightly down from the previous month of 55.2 in November.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar' advance stalled through trade on Wednesday as investors responded to an uptick in Euro Zone price pressures and the FOMC' December meeting minutes. Having touched peaks not seen since 2002 the Greenback met selling pressure and profit taking as the Federal Reserve minutes revealed policy makers, while expecting upside growth through fiscal stimulus, were wary of a heightened USD dragging economic progress. Investors are still seeking fresh clues as to the timing and extent of additional rate hikes through 2017 and yesterday' minutes did little to assuage market curiosities. CME' Fed watch tool shows the market pricing in two rate hikes with a 3<sup>rd</sup> policy adjustment expected by near on 50% of analysts. The USD fell half a percent against the Yen to 117.23 while the Euro bounced off 14 year lows moving back through 1.0450 to touch intraday highs at 1.0496. An unexpected uptick in CPI and Core CPI estimates drove the 19 nation combined unit higher, pushing German Bund yields upward and narrowing the yield advantage enjoyed by US Treasuries. Having met resistance on approach to 1.05 direction today will stem from a raft of U.S macroeconomic indicators headlined by Services data and preliminary Non-farm payroll numbers.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6920 – 0.7010

The Kiwi traded off intraday lows yesterday of 68.90 US Cents as the local market continued to digest the biggest drop in dairy prices for three months. We saw a 0.6% movement higher in overnight trading as FOMC December minutes were released to the public with uncertainty in the amount of interest rate rises for 2017. The Federal Reserve remarked hikes would be &ldquo;Gradual&rdquo; sparking sell offs from 14 year highs on the US Dollar index. The Kiwi has continued its rally where we currently open at highs of 0.6965 against the Greenback.

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