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AUD / USD
0.7750 – 0.7900
Breaking through the 78 US Cents mark for the first time since May 2015, the Australian dollar benefitted in a big way late last week from a notably softer Greenback. Driven higher initially by comments made by US Fed Chair Janet Yellen who surprised investors by noting that monetary policy settings are sitting a lot closer to neutral than many had expected, a raft of disappointing economic releases from the world' largest economy on Friday further increased the appeal of the AUD. Having touched an early session high of 0.7834 when valued against its US Counterpart, the AUD remains vulnerable to additional price-fluctuations today ahead of an all-important GDP and Industrial production print due out of China this morning.
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
USD, EUR, JPY
Price action was predominately moved by the eagerly awaited release of United States core CPI inflation for the month of June. Annualised CPI growth declined to 1.6% from 1.9% in May, disappointing market expectations and dampens the potential for a third interest rate hike by the Fed this year. Retail sales were also lower as the US Dollar was sold off in droves against the majority of major currencies. Euro continued its run, seeing a 14-month high last week of 1.1480 after a greenback sell off ahead of their own set of core inflation figures this evening. USD/JPY slumped from 114.30 highs to the mid 112' on Friday evening, with a bank holiday in Japan expected to slow volatility. Data set from China today will be the main focus on investors’ minds.
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.7300 – 0.7400
The Kiwi advanced further against the Greenback after weak US data reduced the prospects of a rate hike. With US inflation data surprising the market on the downside, coupled with soft retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers the USD fell dramatically across the board. With the NZD reflecting the smallest gain at 0.4% the Kiwi now trades around 0.735 this morning. Trading at a near five month high, the Kiwi now turns to second quarter inflation figures tomorrow for direction.
0.7625 – 0.7780
The Australian dollar marched higher yesterday afternoon, continuing its impressive run when valued against its US Counterpart. Breaking initially back through the 77 US Cents bracket, highs of 0.7739 were briefly witnessed as the US Dollar Spot Index slumped to its lowest level since September 2016. Supported early by some strong Trade Balance numbers from China which showed firmer global demand is assisting broader economic momentum, eyes and ears over the past 24 hours have remained fixed to Janet Yellen who continued her testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Looking towards a weekly close above 0.7720 mark the Australian dollar currently swaps hands at a rate of 0.7729.
1.6650 – 1.6850
In the early European session the EUR/USD pair gained ground and touched a high of 1.1456 as German Final CPI data posted a gain of 0.2%, which was in line with expectations. As the US markets opened the Euro suffered a setback against the worlds reserve currency retracing the gains made earlier on in the week, the pair fell to touch an eventual low of 1.1370. The Fed continued day two of the semi-annual testimony to congress, Yellen didn’t pull out any surprises and reiterated the Fed planned to raise rates gradually and would begin trimming its balance sheet before the end of the year. Turning to economic data, out of the US overnight unemployment claims fell last week for the first time in a month pointing towards strength in the labour market and Producer Prices rose unexpectedly. Attentions now turn to key events out of the US tonight with the release of retail sales, CPI and industrial production. Expectations are for a solid rebound in June retail sales and industrial production and a gradual re-acceleration in June core CPI inflation.
0.7200 – 0.7380
The New Zealand Dollar advanced against the Greenback overnight powering through 73 US cents. The kiwi reached an overnight high of 0.7326 amid speculation the Reserve Bank may begin to raise interest rates in the near term. Any interest rate hike will depend on Inflation which is currently tracking below the RBNZ's projections, so all eyes will be on next week' Consumer Price Index data for further direction. There are no scheduled data releases today in New Zealand. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7319. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7260 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7350.
The Australian dollar has continued its upward ascendency over the past 24 hours benefitting from a Greenback which has retreated across the board. Following testimony from US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen which signalled that policy makers won’t be rushing into tightening policy further, the persistently low inflationary environment which continues to complicate the path to higher rates will be placed front and centre through to the end of this week. Ahead of PPI and CPI numbers which are expected out of the United States this evening and on Friday, the Australian dollar touched an overnight high of 0.7685 when valued against its US Counterpart, stronger this morning as it currently buys 76.77 US Cents.
The Euro Dollar has once again touched a fresh 14-month high against the Greenback during yesterday' early session amid fresh concerns over the Trump administrations alleged connection to Russia, the US Dollar faced selling pressure as investors worried it presented a fresh distraction from the administration' economic agenda. The pair started to erase gains later in the day as Janet Yellen' addressed congress in its semi-annual testimony, her comments seemed to present an optimistic tone about the U.S economy which helped the Greenback recover, currently EUR/USD changing hands at 1.1415 at time of writing. On the data front, oil futures rose on the back of Crude Oil Inventories falling by 7.6 million barrels in the last week, compared with expectations for a decrease of 2.9 million barrels. Looking ahead Yellen will continue to answer questions from Congress and we also see the release of US PPI and Unemployment Claims.
0.7200 – 0.7310
The New Zealand Dollar is marginally higher against the Greenback this morning with solid gains around 0.8% helped by the softer USD and positive risk sentiment. The Kiwi reached an overnight high of 0.7269 after Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the Fed would not need to raise rates "all that much further". Pretty quiet day ahead on the local economic data front with the only scheduled release today the Business NZ Manufacturing Index for the month of June. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7254. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7210 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7265.
The Australian dollar has surprisingly pushed forward in overnight trade after market participants were left shocked by fresh reports of possible Russian involvement in last year' US Election Campaign. Advancing to a high of 0.7642 when valued against tis US Counterpart, its highest mark of the week, markets appeared destined for an otherwise listless session ahead of the jolt which triggered some noted selling across US dollar dominated assets. Whilst the waiting game continues ahead of Janet Yellens testimony overnight on Thursday the AUD opens 0.3 percent higher this morning as it currently buys 76.37 US Cents.
The Euro has rallied sharply higher against the U.S Dollar moving from low of 1.1382 and a high of 1.1480 after comments from a Fed member Lael Brainard about “moving cautiously on further increases” due to low inflation. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at a 14-month high at 1.1469. Meanwhile, on the other side of the world, the bank of Japan said M2 money stock in Japan was up 3.9% on year in June which was in line with market expectations and Japanese Preliminary Machine Tool Orders increased to 31.1% up from 24.4% a month earlier. The data releases did little to move the USD/JPY which did touch an overnight high of 1.1407 ahead of the Fed Janet Yellen' testimony to congress on Wednesday 12th and Thursday July 13th. The testimony from Yellen always needs to be watched very closely, given potential hints on monetary policy and markets will still be monitoring comments on interest rates and policy normalisation very closely.
0.7170 – 0.7300
The New Zealand Dollar rose against the greenback after Donald Trump Jr.'s released emails detailing 'Russia and its government's support for Mr. Trump' his father's campaign to become US president. The NZD/USD pair hit an overnight high of 0.7257. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7221. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7208 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7265. However the Kiwi is weaker against the Euro (0.6301) and the pound sterling (0.5620). After strong NAB Business Confidence in Australia yesterday the Kiwi also fell against the Aussie trading at 1.0557 (0.9454).
Matching consensus forecast, annualised inflation data from China was in line with expectations when released on Monday. Supporting the Australian dollar which oscillated close the 76 US Cents mark for the majority of yesterday' session, the currency remains closely tied to the economic strength of Australia' most important trading partner. Offering very limited topside during the early parts of this week, an NAB Business Confidence survey today is likely to have only a muted impact on the AUD. Opening virtually unchanged at a rate of 0.7605 when valued against its US Counterpart volatility levels aren’t expected to flare-up until later in the week ahead of additional testimony from the US Federal Reserve.
The Euro Struggled to mount any significant directional momentum through trade on Monday moving between a low of 1.1390 and a high of 1.1418 against the U.S Dollar. It was a quiet start to the trading with and with the absence of any major top tier data the currency markets have opened this morning at similar levels as yesterday. Germany had their release of trade figures which reported a surplus increase to €20.3 billion, these numbers came in on expectations as well as the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence survey edging up slightly to 28.4, both releases did little to the Euro Dollar. The pair is seeing immediate support at 1.1382 followed by 1.1311, on the flip side resistance around 1.1448. Another quiet day is expected, Japan sees M2 Money Stock released and Preliminary Machine Tool Orders which measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers, both pieces are unlikely to be market moving, noting that USD/JPY has seen a 5% increase since mid-June, currency trading around the 114.00 handle.
0.7200 – 0.7320
The New Zealand dollar is little changed against the Greenback this morning having opened at 0.7276. Over the past week the Kiwi and the Greenback have traded within a 50 pip range. It' a very quiet week in New Zealand with no macroeconomic data scheduled for release until Thursday. In the mean time in the absence of any notable economic data releases investors are very happy to remain on the sidelines. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7267. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7250 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7340. The Kiwi is weaker this morning against both the Aussie dollar trading at 1.0463 (0.9557) and Pound Sterling 0.5643.
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