Compare to bank
AUD / USD
0.7330 – 0.7430
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
1.7450 – 1.7550
A fairly light on trading session has seen the Great British Pound fail to trade through 1.3000 against the US Dollar. Hitting an intraday high overnight of 1.2985, the Sterling eventually dropped to 1.2930 in North American markets with no domestic releases on hand. The Pound has jumped higher to 1.1855 against the Euro as traders sold on the fact of Macrons French Presidency win once European markets opened. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor is released today as Cable opens this morning at 1.2940. The Great British Pound is also slightly higher against the Australian dollar – 1.7525 and lower against the New Zealand Dollar – 1.8710.
USD, EUR, JPY
The Euro moved lower through trade on Monday while the USD recouped losses suffered in the wake of the French election. Having touched 6 month highs and broken through the psychological 1.10 handle the 19 nation combined unit met downward pressure through trade on Monday as investors began selling into the rally cashing in profits and looking forward to central bank policy expectations. Having priced in a Macron election win attentions turned back to wider macroeconomic fundamentals. Market participants focus shifted to Mario Draghi, the ECB and concerns the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy platform through the short and medium term. Breaking lower the Euro touched intraday lows at 1.0920 while EUR/JPY fell back below 124.00. With little of note on the docket today direction will be largely driven by continued re-positioning in the wake of the election with an eye to headline CPI inflation data Friday. We are watching support at 1.0920/30 with a deeper correction to 1.0850 on the table should we see a consolidated break below support and this morning' open.
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.6850 – 0.6950
The New Zealand Dollar made a slight comeback intraday yesterday, having opened the working week under 69c, NZD/USD moved upwards to touch an eventual high of 0.6945 as European markets opened. Assisting the NZD/USD pair was Greenback weakness as early projection showed that Emmanuel Macron had beaten far-right Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election. However, profit taking emerged once it was confirmed of a new president and pulled the Kiwi back under 69c on the New York close. Aiding Kiwi weakness has been lower commodity prices, iron ore lost more than 2% yesterday and with nothing on the local economic calendar until Thursday we can expect to see the Kiwi bounce around 0.6900 psychosocial support level followed by 0.6840.
1.7000 – 1.7300
Recent Great British Pound gains were halted against its US counterpart as the Sterling retreated from highs of 1.2965 in overnight trading. Despite seeing the highest weekly close since September 2016, the cable cross was sold off as British banks observed May day and saw a European session low of 1.2915. Furthermore, news overnight of Brexit negotiations being short and complicated did no favours to the Pound, sliding further to close off the day at 1.2885. The Great British Pound opens lower against the Australian dollar - 1.7125 and New Zealand Dollar - 1.8650.
Proving to be a mixed session for US equity markets, positive results from corporate America were balanced by a raft of tepid economic results. Whilst treasuries fell, US President Donald Trump generated some fireworks after comments made suggested he was willing to break up several of Wall Street' largest banks. Flat against a handful of its major counterparts the US Dollar was generally flat after a key macro indicator showed Factory activity during the month of March had missed forecast. Whilst a measure of consumer spending also fell short of its mark, overall it has been an uninspiring 24-hour window as witnessed by the tight trading bands across several of the major pairs. Opening stronger versus the Japanese Yen at a rate of 111.858, the US Dollar opens in a softer position versus the euro, swapping hands at a rate of 1.0902. On the horizon this evening second tier PMI reads across Europe offer limited buying opportunities as Thursday nights FOMC Statement is being groomed as the week' biggest inflection point.
0.7360 – 0.7460
The Australian Dollar opens this morning little changed when valued against its US Counterpart. The Aussie closed the week slightly above 0.7400 after trading a low of 0.7366. Weighing on the commodity-related currency this past week was the declining Iron Ore spot price. Looking ahead this week on the data front, a little light, starts today at 11.30 AEST with the release of with Building Approvals, NAB Business Confidence and ANZ Job Advertisements. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7409. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7395 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7440.
1.7400 - 1.7600
The Great British Pound finished stronger for the week and remains pointed to upside movements after closing at 1.2970. Sterling has been supported by stronger economic data and is one is the best performing currencies for the last month against its G10 counterparts. It is also up 2.5% on a trade weighted index basis. Sterling pulled back slightly against the Euro as Centrist Emmanuel Macron won the French Presidential Election although movements were limited as a victory by Macron was already priced in. Markets look towards Bank of England' interest rate decision this week on May 11 where it is expected rates will be kept on hold at 0.25%, along with the release of the BOE quarterly inflation report. Cable opens lower this morning at 1.2965.
The Euro advanced against most major counterparts through trade on Friday and opens this morning higher as relief washed over the market in the wake of Emanuel Macron' victory in the French Presidential Elections. Macron' success is seen as largely Euro positive and while priced in has helped shorten short term volatility and uncertainty allowing the 19 nation combined unit to break through 1.10 for the first time since November while touching 12 month highs against the Yen. Top side resistance on moves approaching 1.1080 will be a key point of interest moving forward as investors attentions now shift to U.S inflation data. A strong Non-Farm Payroll print on Friday has bolstered analyst' expectations the FOMC will maintain its current path to normalisation. Non-Farm payrolls expanded by 211,000 in April comfortably above market consensus with improvements seen across most employment categories, while average earnings rose but still fail to take root and spur wider inflation. The USD dollars bullish run against the Yen is expected to continue while the Euro remains vulnerable to a correction as Focus shift back to the Fed and a June rate hike. Investors attentions this week turn to U.S CPI and Consumer Sentiment numbers Friday as a key marker guiding monetary policy expectations.
0.6850 - 0.6950
The New Zealand Dollar spent the first week of May under the psychological resistance level of 70 cents when valued against its U.S counterpart. The pair tested a high of 0.6968 and a low of 0.6839 in the week leading up to Fridays U.S labour force data. Despite an uptick in jobs added to the US economy and their unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in seven years the Greenback struggled for gains and provided a push for the pair through 69c. The NZD/USD has faced support at 0.6862 multiple times in the last week and has managed to bounce higher on each attempt, this level now is being viewed as critical support from a technical perspective. Meanwhile, against the Australian Dollar, the kiwi is having a stellar run advancing over 2% and currently changing hands at 0.9308 at the time of writing. The economic docket is light for the earlier part of the week before the release of the RBNZ cash rate and monetary policy statement this Thursday.
0.7350 – 0.7500
The Australian Dollar is weaker this morning when valued against its US counterpart falling overnight low of 0.7383 on the back of continued weakness in commodity prices. It' the lowest level since 11th January 2017. According to Metal Bulletin the Iron Ore spot price closed lower at $US65.20. Yesterday trade surplus narrowed in March, resulting in surplus of A$3.11 billion. Locally today there are no economic data releases. The pair is currently trading at 0.7410. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7375 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7445.
1.7400 – 1.7500
The Great British Pound was initially steady against the US Dollar during the Asian session, parked at 1.2880 until news broke of an impending emergency announcement from Buckingham Palace. Traders initially sold off Sterling to an intraday low of 1.2830 before calm was restored with news been immaterial to the markets. Sterling saw gains after a four month high on the latest Services PMI reading, supporting recent upbeat news for the British economy this week. Despite continued strong words between British PM Theresa May and President of the EU Council Donald Tusk, Sterling remained strong with eventual highs seen of 1.2930, and opens at 1.2920 this morning.
Proving that the bullish undertones of the Greenback were short-lived following the FOMC' re-assurance that the economic softness witnessed during Q1 wasn’t likely to derail future interest rate hikes, the worlds reserve currency has since lost ground over the past 24 hours. Whilst US Stocks have been supported on strong earnings, crude plunged to a six-month low amid concerns over a supply glut. Dragging the Greenback lower, treasuries fell as data flows from the United States remained light. Pushing itself to within a whisper of the 1.1000 mark, encouraging macro indicators from the Eurozone have spurred interest in the shared currency as investors hold out hope that the ECB will look to curb bond purchases sooner rather than later. In what' set to dictate direction this evening, economists are forecasting that the US labour market will have produced 194000 new jobs during the month of April.
0.6800 – 0.7000
The New Zealand Dollar edged lower intraday moving from a high of 0.6894 to a low of 0.6839 and is continuing to decline for a second consecutive week. Weighing on the NZD/USD pair is a drop in commodity prices and the possibility that the U.S still may get two rates hikes this year boosting the Dollar. Despite weaker than expected US economic data from the U.S Department of Labour, the kiwi was still dragged lower however, has recouped some losses since and is currently changing hands at 0.6870. Locally today we see the release of Inflation expectations for the first quarter of this year and then all eyes will be focused on tonight' US non-farm payroll data.
0.7375 – 0.7475
On the back of the US FOMC's monetary policy statement last night the Australian Dollar fell to its lowest level since mid-January at 0.7419, down 110 pips, or 1.45 per cent, for the session. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and emphasized on the strength of the labor market in its statement. The pair is currently trading at 0.7424. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7390 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7445. Attentions now turn to today' trade balance figures at 11.30 AEST for the month of April.
1.7200 – 1.7400
The Great British Pound continued to consolidate at 1.2900 against the US Dollar yesterday as it has outperformed most major currencies in the last 30 days. Starting the day at 1.2950, a solid Construction PMI figure reading did little to help the Sterling as it drifted off positive movements. UK construction hit a four month high, showing an upbeat number of employment in the industry. Continued Brexit costs continue to hamper any solid advances through the 1.3000 region as we look towards UK snap elections on the 8th June. The Pound eventually settled lower as the 1.29 handle was broken in the North American session, as the FOMC left interest rates on hold and saw eventual lows on open this morning of 1.2865. The British pound opens higher against the Australian Dollar – 1.7330 and New Zealand Dollar – 1.8700.
The New Zealand Dollar rose yesterday following stronger than expected employment figures for the first quarter of 2017. As employers added more workers to the economy at a pace of 1.2% , the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% down from 5.2% the previous quarter. The NZD/USD touched 0.6968 a six-day high following the news, however, as the figures were further dissected by investors wage inflation which is a key measure of underlying growth was unchanged at 0.4%. The pair began to decline and fell to an eventual low of 0.6867 as the U.S Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged following its two-day policy meeting. In the policy statement they downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth and reiterated the strength of the US labour market, a sign the Fed may move in June. Looking ahead, ANZ Commodity Prices due today.
0.7450 - 0.7600
Offering no underlying bias towards a near-term interest cut the Reserve Bank of Australia kept monetary policy settings unchanged yesterday. Having kept rates steady now since August last year, Governor Philip Lowe once again re-iterated that there continues to be some ongoing concerns over the level of household debt meaning rates are unlikely to go lower unless a large shock to employment was to transpire. Initially rallying to an intraday high of 0.7556 when valued against its US Counterpart the Australian dollar has since settled, opening only 10 basis points above where we saw it yesterday morning at a rate of 0.7532. Over the next 24 hours, this evening' Monetary Policy Statement from the US Federal Reserve is expected to garnish a significant level of attention.
1.7100 - 1.7200
The Great British Pound continued its upward advance through trade on Tuesday following stronger than expected pickup in headline manufacturing. With many analysts pricing in a deterioration in manufacturing productivity throughout April the surprise uptick, driven by strengthening new orders and increasing domestic and foreign demand, forced the GBP back through 1.29. Having consolidated gains Sterling touched intraday highs at 1.2940 and appears poised to break above 1.30 for the first time since October last year. Attentions now turn to today' FOMC and Fed rate statement and monetary policy announcement for direction. A dovish or dour print commentary could be the catalyst needed to extend upside gains and push through 1.3080 – 1.3120.
The Euro opened this morning little changed when valued against its US Counterpart still trading around the 1.0900 level. The EUR/USD has been in a tightening trading range since last week' French presidential election. The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.0926. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.0855 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.0950. On the data front, today all eyes will be on the FOMC interest rate decision with the futures markets pricing-in less than a 5% probability of a rate hike at this meeting. Euro GDP is also due for release today with expectations for the first quarter to come in at 0.5%. Opening marginally lower this morning the US dollar is softer versus the Japanese (112.004) and the Pound Sterling (1.2933).
0.6800 - 0.7000
Supporting the New Zealand dollar, dairy product prices advanced for a fourth consecutive time amid strong demand at a global auction held this morning. Capturing a high of 0.6940 when valued against its US Counterpart a relatively subdued Greenback has further offered a window of stability for the Kiwi which has etched some minor gains versus the worlds reserve currency thus far this week. In what' likely to test its near-term trajectory a quarterly labour market report is expected to show a further deterioration in the key job creation metric. Opening in stronger position the Kiwi currently buys 69.34 US Cents
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