Compare to bank
AUD / USD
0.7330 – 0.7430
The Australian Dollar opened this morning little changed when valued against its US Counterpart with the pair retreating from an overnight high of 0.7382. The Aussie still unable to reach the 0.7400 level. There were no local data releases yesterday, and the macroeconomic calendar will remain empty again today, leaving the AUD/USD pair to take further direction from both the commodities and equities markets. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7373. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7340 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7395. One Australian Dollar currently buys 67.86 Euro cents and 57.21 British pounds.
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
1.7350 – 1.7650
The Great British Pound has moved lower overnight after trading in a tight range during the Asian session. Starting European trade just below 1.2950, the GBP/USD cross dropped to 1.2910 after disappointing manufacturing production figures for the month of March. The BoE kept benchmark interest rates at record lows of 0.25%, setting a mildly hawkish tone, though market participants are not pricing a rate rise till after Brexit in 2019. Furthermore, the Sterling was hit hardest as growth forecasts were trimmed for 2017 and only the one MPC member voted for an interest rate rise in a 7-1 vote to leave rates unchanged. The immediate reaction was a drop in the Pound as it fell through the 1.2900 handle and seeing an intraday low of 1.2850. The Sterling has recovered some of its losses overnight and opens this morning at 1.2890.
USD, EUR, JPY
The US dollar rally stalled through trade on Thursday as investors took stock and consolidated recent gains. Edging marginally lower against both the Japanese Yen and Euro investors paused amid concerns of further fall out regarding President Trumps’ sacking of FBI director James Comey and suggestions the greenback rally may have been over prescribed. Day-to-day macroeconomic markers have been widely variant throughout the last 8 weeks with a lacklustre performance through March overshadowed by an apparent rebound through April. The mixture of upbeat and soft economic performances, while far from derailing bullish sentiment, has forced investors to the sideline wary of extending gains ahead of the Fed June rate announcement. The dollar opens this morning having slipped back below 114 JPY while the Euro remains largely unchanged buying 1.0860 U.S. cents. Attentions now turn to a raft of key indicators with Inflation CPI and retail sales driving direction into the weekend.
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.6720 – 0.6920
The New Zealand dollar suffered a heavy sell off through trade on Thursday following the RBNZ' rate announcement. Investors held a reasonable expectation the RBNZ may move toward a tighter monetary policy platform through the second half of 2017 and a shift away from its current neutral policy stance. Comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler and a suggestion soft wage growth and sluggish inflation will extend the existing policy manifesto into the foreseeable future forces a sharp correction in NZD expectations. Touching near 12 month lows the NZD neared critical support points at 0.6830. Having edged marginally higher into the close the NZD currently buys 0.6845 U.S cents with attentions turned to key U.S macroeconomic indicators. A consolidated break below 0.6830 may open moves toward 0.6690/67.
0.7320 – 0.7420
The Australian Dollar opened this morning little changed when valued against its US Counterpart with the pair retreating from an overnight high of 0.7394. Failing to hit the 0.7400 figure. There was no macro-economic data released yesterday. Today we will see the release of consumer inflation expectations for the month of May during the upcoming session, latest from the previous month at 4.1%. The Aussie has fallen 0.45 per cent against the greenback to an overnight low of 0.73.33 US cents. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7349. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7320 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7385.
1.7500 – 1.7700
The Great British Pound remains range bound ahead of this evenings Bank of England Interest rate decision. Trading flat during the Asian session, the Sterling gained momentum to an overnight high of 1.2987 before a round of selling pressure saw intraday gains paired. Cable sits at 1.2935 on open this morning before a raft of local economic data is released in the UK this evening. Manufacturing Production leads the way before the critical BoE inflation report and Official Bank Rate is released. It is expected that interest rates will be kept on hold at the benchmark rate of 0.25%, although the GBP/USD cross could test psychological resistance at the 1.3000 handle should inflationary pressures to continue to rise. The Great British Pound opens steady against the Australian Dollar – 1.7590 and higher against the New Zealand dollar – 1.8950.
0.6780 – 0.6950
As widely expected the RBNZ this morning has kept the cash rate at low 1.75%, the central bank has not moved since November last year in a bid to support inflation and economic growth. They said that the outlook for growth does remain positive which is supported by the low interest rate, strong population growth and high levels of household spending and construction activity. The central bank also stated that ‘monetary policy would remain accommodative for a considerable period’, the NZD/USD dropped from 0.6939 to 0.6823 immediately as comments suggest that interest rates are unlikely to be lifted in the near-term. Governor Wheeler is due to testify on the Monetary Policy Statement a little later this morning.
0.7280 - 0.7440
The Australian Dollar closed the session lower when valued against its US counterpart trading at an overnight low of 0.7329. Yesterday saw the release of March Retail Sales that came in well below market expectations. Sales figures fell by 0.1% in the month of March, against expectations of a 0.3% increase. There are no scheduled releases today. Attentions now turn to Thursdays release Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations for the month of March. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7346. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7320 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7385.
1.7480 - 1.7680
The Great British Pound was relatively stable over the past 24 hours as the GBP/USD cross hit an intraday high of 1.2960. The BRC Retail sales monitor release during the Asian session saw a gain of 5.6% from the same period in 2016. Cable came under some selling pressure during the European session, eventually bounce off critical support levels at the 1.2900 handle. Losses were paired in early morning trading and opens at 1.2950 against the US dollar. Sterling opens higher against the Australian dollar – 1.7620 and New Zealand Dollar – 1.8770.
The US dollar continued to recoup losses suffered in the wake of the French election touching two month highs against the Yen and forcing the 19 nation combined unit back below 1.09. Renewed demand for risk and shift in attentions back to underlying fundamentals and monetary policy expectations helped drive support for the world' base currency. The dollar was bolstered by a jump in benchmark treasury yields and a further jump in interest rate expectations. With 90% of the market now pricing in a June rate hike an improves yield advantage has prompted investors to sell down Euro and Yen holdings on speculation the respective central banks are unlikely to dampen their own accommodative monetary policy platforms in the short to medium term. The Euro touched intraday lows at 1.0864 and could be poised for s deeper downward correction if volatility returns while the USD broke through 114 JPY. Upside momentum against the Yen is gathering as the gap in central bank policies is drawn into focus again with a move toward March highs at 115.50 at back on the table. Attentions today turn to ECB President Mario Draghi ahead of Friday' all important U.S inflation reports.
0.6850 - 0.6950
1.7450 – 1.7550
A fairly light on trading session has seen the Great British Pound fail to trade through 1.3000 against the US Dollar. Hitting an intraday high overnight of 1.2985, the Sterling eventually dropped to 1.2930 in North American markets with no domestic releases on hand. The Pound has jumped higher to 1.1855 against the Euro as traders sold on the fact of Macrons French Presidency win once European markets opened. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor is released today as Cable opens this morning at 1.2940. The Great British Pound is also slightly higher against the Australian dollar – 1.7525 and lower against the New Zealand Dollar – 1.8710.
The Euro moved lower through trade on Monday while the USD recouped losses suffered in the wake of the French election. Having touched 6 month highs and broken through the psychological 1.10 handle the 19 nation combined unit met downward pressure through trade on Monday as investors began selling into the rally cashing in profits and looking forward to central bank policy expectations. Having priced in a Macron election win attentions turned back to wider macroeconomic fundamentals. Market participants focus shifted to Mario Draghi, the ECB and concerns the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy platform through the short and medium term. Breaking lower the Euro touched intraday lows at 1.0920 while EUR/JPY fell back below 124.00. With little of note on the docket today direction will be largely driven by continued re-positioning in the wake of the election with an eye to headline CPI inflation data Friday. We are watching support at 1.0920/30 with a deeper correction to 1.0850 on the table should we see a consolidated break below support and this morning' open.
0.6850 – 0.6950
The New Zealand Dollar made a slight comeback intraday yesterday, having opened the working week under 69c, NZD/USD moved upwards to touch an eventual high of 0.6945 as European markets opened. Assisting the NZD/USD pair was Greenback weakness as early projection showed that Emmanuel Macron had beaten far-right Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election. However, profit taking emerged once it was confirmed of a new president and pulled the Kiwi back under 69c on the New York close. Aiding Kiwi weakness has been lower commodity prices, iron ore lost more than 2% yesterday and with nothing on the local economic calendar until Thursday we can expect to see the Kiwi bounce around 0.6900 psychosocial support level followed by 0.6840.
1.7000 – 1.7300
Recent Great British Pound gains were halted against its US counterpart as the Sterling retreated from highs of 1.2965 in overnight trading. Despite seeing the highest weekly close since September 2016, the cable cross was sold off as British banks observed May day and saw a European session low of 1.2915. Furthermore, news overnight of Brexit negotiations being short and complicated did no favours to the Pound, sliding further to close off the day at 1.2885. The Great British Pound opens lower against the Australian dollar - 1.7125 and New Zealand Dollar - 1.8650.
Proving to be a mixed session for US equity markets, positive results from corporate America were balanced by a raft of tepid economic results. Whilst treasuries fell, US President Donald Trump generated some fireworks after comments made suggested he was willing to break up several of Wall Street' largest banks. Flat against a handful of its major counterparts the US Dollar was generally flat after a key macro indicator showed Factory activity during the month of March had missed forecast. Whilst a measure of consumer spending also fell short of its mark, overall it has been an uninspiring 24-hour window as witnessed by the tight trading bands across several of the major pairs. Opening stronger versus the Japanese Yen at a rate of 111.858, the US Dollar opens in a softer position versus the euro, swapping hands at a rate of 1.0902. On the horizon this evening second tier PMI reads across Europe offer limited buying opportunities as Thursday nights FOMC Statement is being groomed as the week' biggest inflection point.
0.7360 – 0.7460
The Australian Dollar opens this morning little changed when valued against its US Counterpart. The Aussie closed the week slightly above 0.7400 after trading a low of 0.7366. Weighing on the commodity-related currency this past week was the declining Iron Ore spot price. Looking ahead this week on the data front, a little light, starts today at 11.30 AEST with the release of with Building Approvals, NAB Business Confidence and ANZ Job Advertisements. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7409. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7395 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7440.
1.7400 - 1.7600
The Great British Pound finished stronger for the week and remains pointed to upside movements after closing at 1.2970. Sterling has been supported by stronger economic data and is one is the best performing currencies for the last month against its G10 counterparts. It is also up 2.5% on a trade weighted index basis. Sterling pulled back slightly against the Euro as Centrist Emmanuel Macron won the French Presidential Election although movements were limited as a victory by Macron was already priced in. Markets look towards Bank of England' interest rate decision this week on May 11 where it is expected rates will be kept on hold at 0.25%, along with the release of the BOE quarterly inflation report. Cable opens lower this morning at 1.2965.
The Euro advanced against most major counterparts through trade on Friday and opens this morning higher as relief washed over the market in the wake of Emanuel Macron' victory in the French Presidential Elections. Macron' success is seen as largely Euro positive and while priced in has helped shorten short term volatility and uncertainty allowing the 19 nation combined unit to break through 1.10 for the first time since November while touching 12 month highs against the Yen. Top side resistance on moves approaching 1.1080 will be a key point of interest moving forward as investors attentions now shift to U.S inflation data. A strong Non-Farm Payroll print on Friday has bolstered analyst' expectations the FOMC will maintain its current path to normalisation. Non-Farm payrolls expanded by 211,000 in April comfortably above market consensus with improvements seen across most employment categories, while average earnings rose but still fail to take root and spur wider inflation. The USD dollars bullish run against the Yen is expected to continue while the Euro remains vulnerable to a correction as Focus shift back to the Fed and a June rate hike. Investors attentions this week turn to U.S CPI and Consumer Sentiment numbers Friday as a key marker guiding monetary policy expectations.
The New Zealand Dollar spent the first week of May under the psychological resistance level of 70 cents when valued against its U.S counterpart. The pair tested a high of 0.6968 and a low of 0.6839 in the week leading up to Fridays U.S labour force data. Despite an uptick in jobs added to the US economy and their unemployment rate falling to its lowest level in seven years the Greenback struggled for gains and provided a push for the pair through 69c. The NZD/USD has faced support at 0.6862 multiple times in the last week and has managed to bounce higher on each attempt, this level now is being viewed as critical support from a technical perspective. Meanwhile, against the Australian Dollar, the kiwi is having a stellar run advancing over 2% and currently changing hands at 0.9308 at the time of writing. The economic docket is light for the earlier part of the week before the release of the RBNZ cash rate and monetary policy statement this Thursday.
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