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BY OFX

Economic sentiment post US election drives Greenback


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7350 – 0.7450

Grinding to a high of 0.7444 when valued against its US Counterpart on Wednesday the Australian dollar has remained in a relatively tight trade band over the past 24 hours. Despite strong support which has surprisingly flown from rising commodity and metal prices, a Greenback which has rallied to its highest level in more than a decade this week has well and truly contained any topside outbreaks for the domestic unit. With strong economic data combined with greater odds of a rate rise from the US Federal Reserve the Australian dollar remains at the mercy of underlying strength in the world' reserve currency. Opening fractionally lower at a rate of 0.7387 today' session is shaping up as a quiet one given the closure of US markets this evening.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6600 – 1.6900

The Great British Pound opened higher against the Dollar as the UK Chancellor Philip Hammond delivered a spending boost targeted at improving the UK's chronic productivity deficit. The GBP/USD exchange rate traded to a high of 1.2468 as markets welcomed the announcement. However, the gains soon reversed amidst a widespread US Dollar surge buoyed by an uptick in durable and core durable goods economic data release. Further direction will be led by USD movements overnight along with Second Estimate GDP figures for the quarter on Friday evening.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S dollar advanced through trade on Wednesday testing fresh highs and touching its highest point in over 13 years when measured against a basket of major currency counterparts. Buoyed by an uptick in durable and core durable goods orders the Greenback rallied as investors increased bets the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December and again in 2017. While much of the market has priced in a rate hike when the Fed next meets on December 13 the multi rate hike view is becoming an important catalyst driving the world' base currency higher. A combination of improving macroeconomic indicators and expectations of fiscally driven growth under a Trump presidency are working to increase bets the FOMC and Federal reserve will raise rate again throughout 2017. Rallying through 112 JPY the USD touched near 8 month highs at 112.96 while the Euro fell through 1.06 to touch 19 month lows. With the US markets closed through trade on Thursday in observance of Thanks Giving holiday celebrations and limited liquidity available through trade on Friday we anticipate squaring of positions leading into next week' GDP and Non-Farm payroll numbers.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6950 – 0.7050

The New Zealand Dollar reached a high of 70.80 cents in intraday movements yesterday. Better than expected durable goods orders for the month of October in the United States, along with an increase in consumer sentiment after Trumps election victory has once again driven the Greenback against the Kiwi, and the majority of major currencies. Erasing this week' gains the NZD/USD tested critical support levels once again at the 0.7000 mark and currently tests this level on open this morning. With little NZ economic data on the horizon, the New Zealand Dollar continues to be driven by sentiments in the United States leading up to the next US Federal Reserve meeting in December.

BY OFX

Markets steady ahead of raft of US data sets


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7350 - 0.7420

The Australian dollar has battled its way through the 74 US Cents mark when valued against its US Counterpart once again overnight. Whilst staying comfortably within its broader downside channel, sentiment flows were in most part positive during Tuesday' session as local share markets pushed back towards highs witnessed last in October. Assisted also by commodity prices which strengthened significantly, overall it has been a quite start to the week for the Australian dollar which has absorbed a substantial level of liquidity over the past fortnight. In the absence of any Tier 1 data flows today the domestic unit opens around 30 basis points higher at a rate of 0.7397.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6700 - 1.6950

The Great British Pound comfortably broke through the 1.2500 mark overnight opening almost 1 percent higher in early trade. The Sterling reached an overnight high of 1.2512 against its US Counterpart on comments from Prime Minister Theresa May and a promise to address business concerns surrounding the domestic impact of British European exit. Sterling strengthened against 15 of its 16 major peers amid light trading, the biggest gain in seven sessions. However these gains were short-lived as liquidity remained thin and volatility forced investors to correct positions. Attentions now turn to Wednesday' budget release and expectations for a marginal increase in fiscal stimulus across infrastructure and housing

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The U.S Dollar edged higher through trade on Tuesday buoyed by a stronger than expected uptick in existing home sales. Having improved throughout September yesterday' strong read for October heightened hopes the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December and encouraged some investors to adjust their expectations surrounding the pace of additional rate increases throughout 2017. CME' Fed watch tool now shows 93.5% of analysis pricing in a rate adjustment before the end of the year while just on 50% anticipate supplementary interest rate hikes to come in June with rates approaching 2% by the end of 2018. The Greenback forced the Euro back below 1.06 to touch intraday lows at 1.0586 while a fall in the Japanese Yen drove the dollar index higher throughout the wider session. Gains were however capped as investors looked to safe havens in response to news of an earthquake and tsunami warning in northern Japan. The natural disaster heightened expectations of increased repatriations of JPY over the coming days and minimised Greenback gains. Attentions now turn to a raft of U.S data sets today with core durable goods orders and FOMC meeting minutes headlining the macroeconomic docket.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7000 - 0.7110

The New Zealand dollar has consolidated its value up above the 70 US Cents mark over the past 24 hours, bouncing from an overnight low of 0.7031. In light of a US dollar which has risen sharply in the aftermath of Donald Trump' victory, expectations surrounding fiscal stimulus has continued to drive optimism that stronger growth and higher levels of inflation are on there for the world' largest economy. In a generally quiet session for the Kiwi which saw commodity linked currencies notch up marginal gains, the New Zealand dollar opens steady as it currently buys 70.54 US Cents.

BY OFX

US rally stalls ahead of Thanksgiving weekend


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7305 – 0.7405

On the domestic front the Australian Dollar has fallen 5.9 percent since Donald Trump was elected as the next president of the United States. Since the November high of 0.7777 the AUD fell to a low of 0.7310 against the USD. The AUD has since recovered some of those losses and is currently changing hands at 0.7366. With little to no macro-economic data on hand this week the AUD will take its cue from offshore stimuli as markets position themselves ahead of Wednesday' Fed minutes and Thanks Giving long weekend. We expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7305 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7440.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6750 – 1.7150

The Great British Pound found support through trade on Monday advancing 175 points against the U.S dollar to touch intraday highs at 1.2509. With little domestic data on hand to drive direction Sterling found support in a weaker USD and a series of higher lows. Technical analysis suggest the GBP is poised for a possible run higher. In a market that has been largely USD positive the Pound has offered staunch resistance to downward pressures as markets respond to suggestions inflationary pressures are beginning to build forcing the Bank of England away from additional interest rate cuts and looser monetary policy. Attentions now turn to the MPC Autumn forecast statement for direction and guidance.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US dollar rally stalled through trade on Monday as investors looked to square positions, taking profits ahead of this week' extended Thanks Giving weekend. Having rallied across the last 10 sessions the USD advance appears to be running out of steam. Investors have largely priced in a Fed Rate rise in December while the support thrown behind the dollar following President Elect Trump' election victory wanes. The Euro moved back through 1.06 touching intraday highs at 1.0649 while the Greenback edged back below 110 JPY. Having rebounded from an 11 month low the Euro found support as concerns surrounding a nationalist push in next year' German and French elections eased. German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced on Sunday she would seek a fourth term, a move seen as widely Euro positive given Merkel' support for the Eurozone and liberal politics. With little of note on this week' macroeconomic dockets traders will likely continue to monitor ranges, adjusting positions ahead of next week' preliminary quarterly GDP print and Non–Farm payroll numbers.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6945 – 0.7125

After a lacklustre day yesterday for the New Zealand Dollar we have had a weakening US Dollar drive the NZD/USD pair through the 0.70 barrier in overnight trading. Commodity currencies were all higher with the Kiwi reaching 0.7380 in the American session. Impacts of the recent South Island earthquake has had little effect on the NZD and will not see any major moves by the RBNZ and their monetary policy stance. The New Zealand dollar currently opens at 0.7060 against the Greenback, higher against the Australian Dollar 0.9588 (1.0430) and lower against the British Pound 0.5650 (1.77)

BY OFX

Greenback remains the dominant force in global FX


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 - 0.7400

The Australian Dollar moved lower through trade on Friday having broken through key resistance levels on Thursday of 0.7480. The local unit suffered at the hands of an appreciating Greenback as growing expectations of a December rate hike continue to increase. The Aussie closed the New York session at a five-month low of 0.7319 and down nearly 3% for the week as the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said in testimony to Congress that an increase in interest rates could be “appropriate relatively soon”. The local unit has been range bound the past few months and now likely to succumb to further downward pressure over the coming weeks.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6660 - 1.6840

The UK currency closed the week down 2% when valued against is US counterpart despite hawkish comments of inflation heading up for the remainder of the year and into next year from the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney earlier in the week. The GBP/USD stands at risk of facing additional losses going into the end of the month amid growing expectations for a December Fed-rate hike. The Sterling opens weaker versus the Greenback at a rate of 1.2343. Meanwhile the Pound remains flat versus both the Australian dollar (1.6767) and the New Zealand dollar (1.7602).

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US Dollar Index which measures the Greenback strength against a trade-weighted basket of six currencies continued to hover around a 14-year high amid a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in just over two-weeks. Adding to the Greenback' recent strength has been a growing perception that the economic policies of the new U.S President-elect Donald Trump will help lift consumer prices. Across the Atlantic the Euro was down for a 10<sup>th</sup> consecutive session on Friday after the ECB Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Friday that the Central Bank will continue to maintain stimulus until it was clear that euro inflation had picked up sustainably, inflation was just at 0.50% last month, some way from the ECB' target of around 2%. In other news, USD/JPY continues to strengthen having gained over 6% so far this month, the pair currently changing hands at 110.85. Markets will focus on today' Japanese Trade Balance data which is expected to increase on last month' numbers of 498B, a higher than expected reading should be bullish for the JPY.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6950 - 0.7110

Friday was quiet on the data front with no local economic releases for the New Zealand Dollar to take direction from and therefore offshore events were the main focus. The pair continued to weaken against the U.S Dollar as optimism around the strength of the U.S economy grew along with an expectation of a rate hike next month by the US Federal Reserve at its December 8<sup>th</sup> meeting. The kiwi moved within a 60 pip range for the session, hitting a high of 0.7060 and a low of 0.7006. Local data due out today with Credit Card Spending numbers however unlikely to affect the kiwi.

BY OFX

Bets of a rate hike favours the Greenback


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7340 – 0.7460

In figures released on Thursday the nation' unemployment rate remained steady at 5.6 percent during the month of October. Whilst Australia' workforce participation rate fell to its lowest level in a decade, 9,800 new jobs were created last month with a 0.9 percent rise in the total number of hours worked indicative of full-time employment growth. Having a neutralising impact on the AUD which has remained well and truly out of favour over the past five days, the local unit has managed to trade between a low of 0.7396 and a high 0.7500 when valued against its US Counterpart over the past 24 hours. Opening once again lower at a rate of 0.7413, data prints from the United States this evening are likely to garnish significant attention as the US dollar bulls prepare for another upward push.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6680 – 1.6720

Sustained strength in the world' reserve currency has eroded earlier gains for the Great British Pound which tracked as high as 1.2504 versus the Greenback overnight. Assisted early by a strong retail sales number for the month of October which revealed its strongest growth rate since April of 2002, underlying sales increased by 1.9 percent, a number which comfortably exceeded the forecast gain of 0.5 percent. Hamstrung by a US dollar which has swept up everything in its path, the Sterling opens weaker versus the Greenback at a rate of 1.2419. Meanwhile versus both the Australian dollar (1.6756) and the New Zealand dollar (1.7652) the Sterling opens in a more commanding position.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

In a busy session of macro-economic flows from the United States, Housing Starts and Building Permit numbers both surpassed expectations for the month of October whilst the all-important Consumer Price Index increased by a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent. Holding close to its highest level in five months versus the Yen before Japan' Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meets with President &ndash; elect Donald Trump in New York, the US Dollar Index which tracks the US currency versus 10 of its major peers remained close also to the record highs witnessed on Wednesday. Pushing global stocks higher and Treasuries lower, US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen confirmed overnight that an interest rate hike would be coming relatively soon, a view which, along with the perceived fiscal assistance from Trump helps explains the Greenback substantial rally, it has surged by 2.8 percent this week alone. Ahead of further rhetoric from Janet Yellen this evening, ECB President Mario Draghi is also due to speak at the 26th European Banking Congress in Frankfurt. .

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.6980 – 0.7100

With technical resistance levels kicking in for the US Dollar intraday yesterday, the New Zealand dollar bounced from the lows witnessed overnight on Wednesday, managing instead to push back towards the 71 US Cents handle. Proving to be an early and unsustainable push higher, bets of an interest rate rise from the US Federal Reserve next month have cemented the Greenbacks dominance with Janet Yellen overnight doing very little to water down expectations that rise in borrowing costs will be delivered in December. Following another a session of US dollar strength, the Kiwi opens in a vulnerable position this morning as it currently buys 70.35 US Cents.

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