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BY OFX

Greenback rallies on ECB interest rate decision


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7550 - 0.7650

Yesterday after the release of the Unemployment data we saw the Aussie fall back from its overnight high of 0.7734 falling to an intraday low of just above 0.7600 cents. The Unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.6% however the resulting reading in the employment change number of negative 9,800 weighed heavily on the AUD during the local session. There is no local data slated for release today and the AUD will be at the mercy of offshore events and happenings. Against the NZD, the Aussie is currently changing hands at 1.0607 (0.9427) against the and 0.6224 (1.6065) against the Pound.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6000 - 1.6100

The Great British Pound fell back under 1.23 overnight as Retails Sales were flat for the month of September despite spending is holding up relatively well post EU referendum. Even though we have seen a number of better than expected data from the UK since Brexit happened the large fall a couple of weeks back and also the confusion surrounding the Brexit process is continuing to torment the traders, even the good economic data is not able to give the much-needed push to GBP/USD. All losses against the AUD have been recouped as the Australian unemployment figures showed a loss of 53k full-time jobs, GBP/AUD currently sitting at 1.6060 and a shade higher against the New Zealand Dollar at 1.7035. Quite on the data front, markets will look for offshore for market movers.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US Dollar hit a 7 month against the EURO overnight as the European Central Bank elected to keep interest rates on hold and the Quantitative Easing Programme in place. EURUSD fell to a low of 1.0920 as comments from ECB President filtered through indicating that further stimulus measures could considered as early as December and that any tapering in the organisations bond buying programme is not on the table at present. Adding to the US Dollars strength overnight was a better than expected reading in US Existing Homes sales. The Greenback is trading just below 104 versus the Japanese Yen and slightly up against the Pound at 1.2256.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7150 - 0.7220

After opening the week at 0.7060 the New Zealand Dollar peaked yesterday morning at 0.7265 against its US counterpart. With a lack of data out of New Zealand yesterday the Kiwi was driven by offshore events with the ECB leaving interest rates on hold and delaying expansion of their Quantitative easing program further. This provided the catalyst for a rally in the US dollar against the majority of major currencies pushing the NZD/USD cross down to a low of 0.7180 where we currently trade on morning open. The Kiwi has fared slightly better against its Trans-Tasman neighbour reaching a high this morning of 0.9460 (1.0570) against the Australian dollar as markets sold off the Aussie with a weaker than expected employment figure. Today we see some lower tier data out today as migration figures and credit card spending is released to the market.

BY OFX

Chinese Data lifts Commodity Currencies


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7650 - 0.77500

The Greenback feel for a third straight day after better than forecast Inflation data was released suggesting an interest rate rise may not be too far away. The AUD reached an overnight high of 0.7729 breaking through the previous resistant level of 0.7690. It’s the first time in a month the Aussie has broken through the 0.77 cent level. Today all eyes will be on the Employments data at 11.30am AEDT. The forecast for a slight change from 5.6 percent to 5.7 percent. The Aussie is currently changing hands at 1.0674 (0.9368) against the Kiwi Dollar and 0.6286 (1.5906) against the Pound.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.5900 - 1.6000

The British Pound has managed to hold on to recent gains earlier in the week and is currently changing hands at 1.2290 against the US Dollar. Concerns that ‘Brexit’ could lead to redundancy for many UK residents have eased slightly with unemployment figures coming in right on expectations and unchanged at 4.9%. A rally is the Australian dollar caused the GBPAUD cross to weaken further falling to near three-year lows of 1.5909 (0.6285). Similar story with the GBPNZD cross rate which is at records lows and currently trading at 1.6989 (0.5887), an opportune time for anyone needing to buy Pounds at the moment. Today we see the release of September Retail sales which are expected to rise 0.3%.

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The US Dollar lost ground against commodity based currencies overnight as data out of China suggest that the world’s largest economy was on track to maintain its recent growth targets. The Chinese GDP number came in as expected at 6.7% and in line with the previous two quarters suggesting that there is still some room for growth in the economy despite a recent surge in government and private debt. Against the EURO, the US Dollar gained some ground pushing it down below the 1.10 mark to an intraday low 1.0975 as traders await the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision today and whether or not they will start tapering off their bond purchases. Against the Pound and Japanese Yen, the Dollar is steady at 1.2285 and 103.44 respectively. The release of the Beige book overnight muddied the waters somewhat for Fed Policymakers as it showed wage growth remained modest in most districts for the September and October periods.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7150 - 0.7250

The New Zealand Dollar continues to see moderate gains overnight as the Kiwi traded in a tight range above support at 0.72. The Kiwi saw a two-week high of 0.7249 as a rally in major equity markets and a boost in commodity prices spurred risk on currencies. The NZD/USD movements will be dominated today by the third and final United States presidential election debate kicking off at 12pm (AEST) today. The New Zealand Dollar opens higher this morning against the US Dollar at 0.7230 and lower against the Australian Dollar 0.9372 (1.0670)

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