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AUD / USD
0.7530 - 0.7680
The Australian dollar struggled to mount any significant directional momentum through trade on Monday bouncing off supports at 0.7590/0.7600 and shrugging aside wider USD gains. While the Greenback neared nine month highs against a basket of major currency counterparts the AUD held off deeper downward corrections on expectations Philip Lowe and the RBA will look to maintain the current policy platform through both its November and December meetings. With little of note on docket today attentions remain squarely focused on Wednesday’s 3<sup>rd</sup> quarter CPI inflation report. A print outside an annualised expansion of 1.1% could shift the near term AUD outlook and force a break below 0.76 and test of supports approaching 0.7530.
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
1.5950 - 1.6110
The Pound remained above the 1.22 handle against the Greenback overnight with the pair trading between 1.2200 and 1.2240. Negotiations between the UK and the European Union as well as negotiations between England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales around the timing and what is required in exiting the EU after Junes Brexit vote still are weighing on any upside that the Pound has versus the US Dollar. Today’s speech by Bank of England Mark Carney will also shed some light on a possible EU exit and what impact it would have for future growth. Against the Australian Dollar, the Pound is changing hands at 1.6040 and 1.7120 against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD, EUR, JPY
The Dollar remained at eight-month highs against the Euro during Monday’s day of trading as expectations for a U.S interest rate hike before the year end boosted demand for the Greenback. Adding to this are growing expectations of Hilary Clinton winning the upcoming U.S presidential election which aids support to a December rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The pair moved within a tight range of 1.0857 to 1.0900. Economic data releases for both German and French Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations however, the Euro remained under pressure since the ECB president Draghi indicated last week the ECB may extend its stimulus program in December. Japan’s Trade Balance moved back into positive territory recording a surplus of 498.3 billion yen, this move was helped by an improvement in exports although it was still the 12<sup>th</sup> consecutive month that an annual decline has been reported which has come off the back of a rising USD/JPY. Markets will turn their attention to this evening speech by ECB President Draghi who is due to speak about Economic and Monetary affairs.
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.7040 - 0.7230
With domestic markets closed in observance of the Labour Day Bank Holiday there was little directional guidance on hand throughout local trade on Monday, leaving the Kiwi at the mercy offshore stimulus. Having broken through a key resistance level of 0.7140 the Kiwi touched overnight highs at 0.7176. The gains however were short-lived as the Greenback strengthened against commodity currencies and the Kiwi retreated, bracing itself marginally above support at 0.7120. The Kiwi is currently changing hands against the Greenback 0.7137 as attentions turn to third-quarter US GDP data Thursday.
0.7530 - 0.7650
Having broken through 0.77 and touched two month highs in early trade last week the Australian dollar suffered a heavy sell off through trade on Friday as investors drove the U.S dollar higher. The Greenback’s dollar index rallied to its highest level in 10 months as traders followed heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in December, forcing the AUD to intraday lows at 0.7589. The Aussie dollar has struggled to break beyond lows of 0.7460 and highs of 0.77 in the four months since the end of June and last week’s rally looked to signal a possible breakout., however the rapid retreat appears to have closed the door on any short term upward push with ranges expected to be choppy into the U.S Presidential election. Attentions this week turn to Wednesday’s CPI inflation print as a key marker for future RBA monetary policy and a possible trigger point for additional interest rate adjustments.
1.5950 - 1.6100
The Pound fell in Friday’s trading as Brexit fears again griped the markets and just how the UK government will go about activating Article 52 of the Lisbon Treaty next year. With Prime Minister Theresa May in Brussels for her first EU meeting, the steps of the exit still remain unclear. The Pound traded between 1.2180 and 1.2240 against the US Dollar. In what shapes up to be a be a big week for the Sterling the 2 keys events that the markets will focus on will Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carneys speck on Wednesday and Thursday’s preliminary GDP for the past quarter. Against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar the Pound is changing hands at 1.6050 and 1.7040 respectively.
The US Dollar continued its recent run of strength advancing against a basket of major currency counterparts as investors responded to heightened expectation surrounding a December interest rate tightening by the Federal Reserve. CME’s Fed watch tool now shows approx. 70% of analysists pricing in a rate hike before end of 2016. The Euro struggled as a general lack of commitment from the ECB regarding an extension of the QE past March 2017 kept a lid on the EUR/USD, the pair hit a low of 1.0857 on Friday night - a level not seen since early March. USD/JPY recorded small losses last week closing at 103.70, with little domestic Japanese data available last week to stimulate any significant directional move. Attentions now turn to a raft of top tier macroeconomic indicators through the week ahead kick started by today’s Japanese Trade Balance report and bookend by US third quarter GDP.
0.7050 - 0.7250
We kick off this week with a Public Holiday, Labour Day. A relatively quiet week ahead with the only data release set for Thursday’s Trade Balance. On Friday we saw a tight trading range against the USD between 0.7143 – 0.7194. The Kiwi is currently trading at 0.7158 and we expect the NZD to continue to trade in that range again today. The Kiwi remains strong against the British Pound after its post-Brexit devaluation. The Kiwi is currently changing hands 1.7058 (0.5862) against the Pound.
0.7550 - 0.7650
Yesterday after the release of the Unemployment data we saw the Aussie fall back from its overnight high of 0.7734 falling to an intraday low of just above 0.7600 cents. The Unemployment rate dropped from 5.7% to 5.6% however the resulting reading in the employment change number of negative 9,800 weighed heavily on the AUD during the local session. There is no local data slated for release today and the AUD will be at the mercy of offshore events and happenings. Against the NZD, the Aussie is currently changing hands at 1.0607 (0.9427) against the and 0.6224 (1.6065) against the Pound.
1.6000 - 1.6100
The Great British Pound fell back under 1.23 overnight as Retails Sales were flat for the month of September despite spending is holding up relatively well post EU referendum. Even though we have seen a number of better than expected data from the UK since Brexit happened the large fall a couple of weeks back and also the confusion surrounding the Brexit process is continuing to torment the traders, even the good economic data is not able to give the much-needed push to GBP/USD. All losses against the AUD have been recouped as the Australian unemployment figures showed a loss of 53k full-time jobs, GBP/AUD currently sitting at 1.6060 and a shade higher against the New Zealand Dollar at 1.7035. Quite on the data front, markets will look for offshore for market movers.
The US Dollar hit a 7 month against the EURO overnight as the European Central Bank elected to keep interest rates on hold and the Quantitative Easing Programme in place. EURUSD fell to a low of 1.0920 as comments from ECB President filtered through indicating that further stimulus measures could considered as early as December and that any tapering in the organisations bond buying programme is not on the table at present. Adding to the US Dollars strength overnight was a better than expected reading in US Existing Homes sales. The Greenback is trading just below 104 versus the Japanese Yen and slightly up against the Pound at 1.2256.
0.7150 - 0.7220
After opening the week at 0.7060 the New Zealand Dollar peaked yesterday morning at 0.7265 against its US counterpart. With a lack of data out of New Zealand yesterday the Kiwi was driven by offshore events with the ECB leaving interest rates on hold and delaying expansion of their Quantitative easing program further. This provided the catalyst for a rally in the US dollar against the majority of major currencies pushing the NZD/USD cross down to a low of 0.7180 where we currently trade on morning open. The Kiwi has fared slightly better against its Trans-Tasman neighbour reaching a high this morning of 0.9460 (1.0570) against the Australian dollar as markets sold off the Aussie with a weaker than expected employment figure. Today we see some lower tier data out today as migration figures and credit card spending is released to the market.
0.7650 - 0.77500
The Greenback feel for a third straight day after better than forecast Inflation data was released suggesting an interest rate rise may not be too far away. The AUD reached an overnight high of 0.7729 breaking through the previous resistant level of 0.7690. It’s the first time in a month the Aussie has broken through the 0.77 cent level. Today all eyes will be on the Employments data at 11.30am AEDT. The forecast for a slight change from 5.6 percent to 5.7 percent. The Aussie is currently changing hands at 1.0674 (0.9368) against the Kiwi Dollar and 0.6286 (1.5906) against the Pound.
1.5900 - 1.6000
The British Pound has managed to hold on to recent gains earlier in the week and is currently changing hands at 1.2290 against the US Dollar. Concerns that ‘Brexit’ could lead to redundancy for many UK residents have eased slightly with unemployment figures coming in right on expectations and unchanged at 4.9%. A rally is the Australian dollar caused the GBPAUD cross to weaken further falling to near three-year lows of 1.5909 (0.6285). Similar story with the GBPNZD cross rate which is at records lows and currently trading at 1.6989 (0.5887), an opportune time for anyone needing to buy Pounds at the moment. Today we see the release of September Retail sales which are expected to rise 0.3%.
The US Dollar lost ground against commodity based currencies overnight as data out of China suggest that the world’s largest economy was on track to maintain its recent growth targets. The Chinese GDP number came in as expected at 6.7% and in line with the previous two quarters suggesting that there is still some room for growth in the economy despite a recent surge in government and private debt. Against the EURO, the US Dollar gained some ground pushing it down below the 1.10 mark to an intraday low 1.0975 as traders await the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision today and whether or not they will start tapering off their bond purchases. Against the Pound and Japanese Yen, the Dollar is steady at 1.2285 and 103.44 respectively. The release of the Beige book overnight muddied the waters somewhat for Fed Policymakers as it showed wage growth remained modest in most districts for the September and October periods.
0.7150 - 0.7250
The New Zealand Dollar continues to see moderate gains overnight as the Kiwi traded in a tight range above support at 0.72. The Kiwi saw a two-week high of 0.7249 as a rally in major equity markets and a boost in commodity prices spurred risk on currencies. The NZD/USD movements will be dominated today by the third and final United States presidential election debate kicking off at 12pm (AEST) today. The New Zealand Dollar opens higher this morning against the US Dollar at 0.7230 and lower against the Australian Dollar 0.9372 (1.0670)
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