Compare to bank
AUD / USD
0.7800 – 0.7900
The Australian dollar offered little through trade on Monday with markets largely subdued as NSW, QLD and ACT enjoyed an extended Labour Day long weekend. Maintaining a tight 40-point range for much the day the AUD did test key technical supports at 0.7830 and 0.78 following stronger than anticipated U.S macroeconomic data. Breaking below 0.78 for the first time since July the AUD touched intraday lows at 0.7796 and perhaps signalled a wider shift in sentiment. A consolidated move below 0.7830 could signal a break in the recent bull uptrend and as long as a Federal Reserve December rate hike remains in play short term downside supports may be tested opening moves toward 0.7725 and 0.7630. Attentions now turn to the RBA and its monthly rate/policy announcement. With no changes to interest rates expected the focus will be squarely on the accompanying rate statement for impetus and direction.
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
1.6800 – 1.7100
USD, EUR, JPY
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.7150 – 0.7250
0.7750 – 0.7950
The Australian dollar tested key technical supports through trade on Thursday moving through 0.7830 and touching intraday lows at 0.78. The Aussie suffered a steep sell off following proposed changes to both private and corporate tax systems by U.S president Donald Trump. The suggested tax amendments, if passed, would mean the biggest shift in U.S taxation for 30 years and sparked confidence that the republican leader may deliver some of the promises proffered last November. Having found support at 0.78 the Aussie rallied into the close as profit taking and quarterly position management forced a correction in the USD and we open this morning buying 0.7854 U.S cents. Attentions now turn to next Tuesday' RBA rate announcement and monetary policy statement for further direction and guidance on monetary policy divergence as we watch key supports at 0.7830 and 0.78. A break and consolidated close below these thresholds could signal a shift in short term ranges.
1.7000 – 1.7200
0.7100 – 0.7300
The New Zealand dollar edged higher throughout trade on Thursday as profit taking and quarterly line management forced the USD to recant gains enjoyed through recent days. The RBNZ' rate announcement offered little to excite investors and left the Kiwi at the mercy of offshore markers. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7166 on proposals of wide reaching U.S tax reform the NZD rallied breaking higher and moving back through 0.72 U.S cents as investors sold into the extended USD rally and squared positions leading into month' end. With support at 0.7170 attentions turn to next week' U.S Non-farm payroll number for macroeconomic direction.
With the worlds reserve currency continuing its move to higher ground the Australian dollar has come under renewed pressure over the past 24 hours. Slumping to a low of 0.7836 during Wednesday' session, optimism that Trumps Tax Plan will support growth and drive greater investment has spurred interest in the Greenback which again opens in a broadly stronger position this morning. Having to digest another tranche of key macro releases from the United States tonight, a speech by RBA Assist Governor Guy Debelle in London is likely to have only a limited impact. Opening lower the Australian dollar currently buys 78.50 US Cents.
1.6900 – 1.7200
The New Zealand Dollar remains relatively unchanged this morning, trading within a tight range slightly above the 0.72 level. Initially the Kiwi gained against the Greenback in overnight trading, reaching a high of 0.7238 and showing signs of post-election underperformance recovery. However, the positive headline gave way to a small sell-off and was subsequently forced lower as the RBNZ chose to keep rates on hold as widely expected. The official statement also held no demons with Acting Governor Grant Spencer reiterating the RBNZ' continued accommodative stance. With little else on the domestic front to drive direction today, the Kiwi now turns to its counterparties GDP figures later this evening for momentum.
0.7785 – 0.8000
The Australian Dollar opened weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback reaching its lowest level of 0.7859 since August 16. The greenback was given an early boost by renewed talk about the prospect of US tax reforms being back in play with the Trump administration to unveil a stimulative tax reform plan over the next 24 hours. The US Dollar held on to the gains as the Federal Reserve' Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated in her speech yesterday the case for another rate hike later this year. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7885. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7840 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7920.
The New Zealand Dollar enjoyed a roller coaster overnight session initially sliding to a low of 0.7167 before recovering to open this morning at 0.7211. The Federal Reserve' Chair Yellen drove a resurgent Greenback during the American session that saw most major currencies fall significantly, including the Kiwi. Earlier in the day, the New Zealand Dollar had traded lower for much of the day as the ANZ business outlook survey portrayed a declining confidence in economic conditions. Traders have also deemed the political uncertainty with the New Zealand election as a bridge to far and have sold down on the Kiwi, further exacerbating the sell-off. With the NZD consolidating slightly above 0.72 this morning, Investors now turn to Thursdays cash rate announcement and RBNZ statement for direction.
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