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By MATT RICHARDSON

Aussie tests new lows as USD threatens to break outside recent bear trend


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7730 – 0.7860

The Australian dollar tested new 3 month lows through trade on Tuesday breaking through support at 0.78 and touching intraday lows at 0.7784. The AUD came under increased selling pressure following the RBA' decision to leave rates on hold at 1.5%. While the decision was largely priced in the accompanying commentary offered little to excite investors noting the rising AUD would likely cause a slowdown in wider economic growth and restrain inflationary pressures. The comments dampened expectations that recent upticks in Business conditions and an improving labour market may prompt the RBA to consider a rate hike sooner. The break low found support and failed to push through the 100 day moving average offering investors buying opportunities and saw the AUD stage a brief relief rally pushing back through 0.78 and 0.7833. As attentions turn to a raft of U.S macroeconomic data sets for direction through the back of the week we are watching move approaching 0.7730 as a key marker of wider sentiment.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6770 – 1.7030

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7130 – 0.7250

By JOEL HOLMES

US Dollar advances – Manufacturing growth hits 13-Year high


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7800 – 0.7900

The Australian dollar offered little through trade on Monday with markets largely subdued as NSW, QLD and ACT enjoyed an extended Labour Day long weekend. Maintaining a tight 40-point range for much the day the AUD did test key technical supports at 0.7830 and 0.78 following stronger than anticipated U.S macroeconomic data. Breaking below 0.78 for the first time since July the AUD touched intraday lows at 0.7796 and perhaps signalled a wider shift in sentiment. A consolidated move below 0.7830 could signal a break in the recent bull uptrend and as long as a Federal Reserve December rate hike remains in play short term downside supports may be tested opening moves toward 0.7725 and 0.7630. Attentions now turn to the RBA and its monthly rate/policy announcement. With no changes to interest rates expected the focus will be squarely on the accompanying rate statement for impetus and direction.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6800 – 1.7100

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7150 – 0.7250

By Shameem Musa

Australian Dollar bounces off 78c


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7750 – 0.7950

The Australian dollar tested key technical supports through trade on Thursday moving through 0.7830 and touching intraday lows at 0.78. The Aussie suffered a steep sell off following proposed changes to both private and corporate tax systems by U.S president Donald Trump. The suggested tax amendments, if passed, would mean the biggest shift in U.S taxation for 30 years and sparked confidence that the republican leader may deliver some of the promises proffered last November. Having found support at 0.78 the Aussie rallied into the close as profit taking and quarterly position management forced a correction in the USD and we open this morning buying 0.7854 U.S cents. Attentions now turn to next Tuesday' RBA rate announcement and monetary policy statement for further direction and guidance on monetary policy divergence as we watch key supports at 0.7830 and 0.78. A break and consolidated close below these thresholds could signal a shift in short term ranges.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.7000 – 1.7200

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7100 – 0.7300

The New Zealand dollar edged higher throughout trade on Thursday as profit taking and quarterly line management forced the USD to recant gains enjoyed through recent days. The RBNZ' rate announcement offered little to excite investors and left the Kiwi at the mercy of offshore markers. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7166 on proposals of wide reaching U.S tax reform the NZD rallied breaking higher and moving back through 0.72 U.S cents as investors sold into the extended USD rally and squared positions leading into month' end. With support at 0.7170 attentions turn to next week' U.S Non-farm payroll number for macroeconomic direction.

By Shameem Musa

Greenback showing signs of strength


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7750 – 0.7950

With the worlds reserve currency continuing its move to higher ground the Australian dollar has come under renewed pressure over the past 24 hours. Slumping to a low of 0.7836 during Wednesday' session, optimism that Trumps Tax Plan will support growth and drive greater investment has spurred interest in the Greenback which again opens in a broadly stronger position this morning. Having to digest another tranche of key macro releases from the United States tonight, a speech by RBA Assist Governor Guy Debelle in London is likely to have only a limited impact. Opening lower the Australian dollar currently buys 78.50 US Cents.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6900 – 1.7200

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7100 – 0.7300

The New Zealand Dollar remains relatively unchanged this morning, trading within a tight range slightly above the 0.72 level. Initially the Kiwi gained against the Greenback in overnight trading, reaching a high of 0.7238 and showing signs of post-election underperformance recovery. However, the positive headline gave way to a small sell-off and was subsequently forced lower as the RBNZ chose to keep rates on hold as widely expected. The official statement also held no demons with Acting Governor Grant Spencer reiterating the RBNZ' continued accommodative stance. With little else on the domestic front to drive direction today, the Kiwi now turns to its counterparties GDP figures later this evening for momentum.

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