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AUD / USD
0.7900 – 0.8000
The Australian dollar tracked sideways through much of the domestic trading session on Wednesday holding onto to gains above 0.80 U.S cents. With little domestic data on hand to drive direction investors seemed content in managing positions ahead of a busy macroeconomic docket. Having touched intraday highs at 0.8044 the AUD then suffered at the hands of renewed USD demand. Reports Trump and republicans are attempting to fast track key tax reforms, chasing a bipartisan agreement to ensure support and success through the house bolstered the world' base currency and fostered widespread gains across most major currency counterparts. Slipping back below 0.80 and opening this morning at 0.7984 attentions turn to key domestic labour market data and headline U.S inflation numbers for direction into Friday and the weekend.
Great British Pound
GBP / AUD
1.6500 – 1.6600
USD, EUR, JPY
New Zealand Dollar
NZD / USD
0.7200 – 0.7300
The New Zealand Dollar maintained its sideways range over the past twenty-four hours as it again could not push through the 0.73 handle against the US Dollar. Opening at 0.7285, the Kiwi saw an intraday high of 0.7303 after a stronger NZ FPI number in the morning before pulling back to 0.7220 on broader greenback strength in overnight trading. With a lack of domestic data, markets will focus on the upcoming Inflation reading in the Unites States as the New Zealand Dollar opens this morning at 0.7245.
0.8000 – 0.8100
The Australian dollar held a relatively tight 50-point range through much of Tuesday having found support on moves toward 0.80 U. S cents. With little macroeconomic data to steer direction the Australian Dollar bounced between intraday lows at 0.8001 and session highs at 0.8050 as investors simply squared positions and risk appetite crept back into the market. Despite easing tensions with North Korea and the softening of Hurricane Irma investors were wary of extending USD gains. The bearish channel remains intact and CPI inflation data poses a significant risk to short term positioning. Attentions remain squarely fixed on Thursday Domestic labour market print and U.S inflation read as key markers and possible catalysts driving an immediate directional shift.
0.7250 – 0.7350
The New Zealand dollar moved higher in the domestic session yesterday, benefitting from the latest opinion polls in the lead up to the general election on September 23rd. Opening at 0.7250 against its American counterpart, the Kiwi drifted off to an intraday low of 0.7220 before surging higher after the Newshub poll suggested an increase in lead for the National Party to 47.3%. The NZD/USD cross hit eventual highs of 0.7320 rallying a full cent. The New Zealand dollar opens at 0.7285 ahead of the latest Food Price Index figures due for release this morning.
The Australian dollar edged lower through trade on Monday in what was a lacklustre session for macroeconomic drivers. With little to spark direction the AUD succumb to profit taking as renewed demand for risk sparked an increased push for the USD. Hurricane Irma' downgrade to a Tropical Storm dampened expectations of a significant downturn to national GDP while North Korea did not perform further nuclear test at the weekend. The Aussie moved back through 0.8050 but found support having touched intraday lows at 0.8019 and opens this morning buying 0.8030 U. S cents. With resistance now forming as support at 0.8030 attentions turn to middle level U.S employment data ahead of key labour market data Thursday.
1.6350 – 1.6450
The New Zealand dollar trend ticked higher as risk sentiment improved in overnight markets. Opening at 0.7245 against the US Dollar, the Kiwi reached intraday highs of 0.7295, unable to sustain its rally through the 0.73 barrier. With stronger movements in the US Dollar in offshore trading, the NZD/USD cross eventually settled lower, pairing gains for the day. The New Zealand dollar opens slightly higher this morning at 0.7260 with a lack of domestic data on the horizon.
The Australian dollar surged through trade on Friday touching fresh two year highs as the U.S dollar met renewed selling pressures. The world' base currency tumbled as investors again revised expectations for interest rates while increasing tensions with North Korea and the ravaging effects of hurricane Irma weighed heavily on investors demand for risk. The Aussie dollar moved through key technical resistance at 0.8030/40 and touched intraday highs at 0.8121 before profit taking saw a correction into the close and we open this morning buying 0.8050 U.S Cents. Attentions today will likely remain with wider risk trends as the domestic macroeconomic docket offers little to spark direction with focus turning to key U.S inflation and detail sales data due Thursday and Friday.
1.6325 – 1.6450
The Greenback continued to succumb to broader weakness on Friday as investors responded to the amended expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike path with the probability of a Fed rate hike in December now diminished. The EUR/USD pair finished the week on a yearly high of 1.2092 after the European Central Bank left rates and the QE program unchanged. Fairly quiet day ahead on the macroeconomic calendar with the only scheduled release monthly Italian Industrial Production for August. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2014. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.2010 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.2070.
The New Zealand peaked on Friday for a weekly high of 0.7335 at the close of the domestic session after an intraday rally of 1.5%. The morning saw a lift in manufacturing sales for the quarter spurred on by an increase in the volume of meat and dairy products. The Kiwi fell from its monthly high in offshore trading as tensions continue between the United States and North Korea. Safe haven plays saw the NZD/USD fall through the 0.73 handle and close the week at 0.7260. With a lack of domestic data on the horizon, investors focus on the upcoming NZ general election on September 23rd as Labour currently holds a small lead in current polls. The New Zealand dollar opens this morning at 72.45 US cents.
0.7950 – 0.8090
The Australian dollar' upward trajectory continued through trade on Thursday edging through a point of key technical resistance and touching intraday highs at 0.8050. A decline in domestic retail sales and a smaller than anticipated trade balance print did little to dampen demand for the AUD as it remained steady throughout the Australasian session; making multiple attempts to extend beyond the 0.80 handle. The Aussie then found support and moved higher as investors looked to short USD holdings. The Greenback succumb to broader weakness as investors responded to the ECB' policy announcements and further amended expectations for a December rate hike following the resignation of Fed Vice President Stanley Fischer. As a bystander the AUD took advantage and touched 2 month highs and looks poised to break the peak enjoyed throughout the July uptick. Attentions now turn to RBA Governor Lowe for monetary policy commentary while Chinese inflation data and Canadian labour market conditions dominate the offshore docket.
1.6160 – 1.6380
The Euro hovered around the 1.19 level for most of the early Asian session before the ECB‘s president caused EUR/USD to rally. Defying warnings from Mario Draghi in his Press Conference that a stronger euro could have negative consequences the bulls pushed the EUR/USD through the 1.20 level to touch an eventual high of 1.2059. A higher dollar can lead to an increase in imports which ultimately can weigh on inflation, something the ECB is closely monitoring. With the ECB' current purchase program due to end in December, they have not yet decided how to proceed next year. Meanwhile in the U.S, initial jobless claims rose from 236k to 298k last week, this was the highest since 2015 and could have been impacted with Hurricane Harvey.
0.7140 – 0.7280
The New Zealand dollar rallied strongly through trade on Thursday touching intraday highs at 0.7242 and regaining much of the losses suffered early in the week. After a lacklustre domestic session wherein supports at 0.7190 were again tested the Kiwi moved higher, benefiting from broadside USD weakness. Greenback softness in response to the ECB' policy announcement and the lingering impact of the BoC' surprise rate hike, when coupled with a declining expectation the Fed will tighten monetary policy conditions in December all forced investors to short USD holdings enabling further upside across its G-10 counterparts. Opening this morning at 0.7230 the NZD gave up more ground against the AUD breaking below 0.90 and touching 0.8980.
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