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By BRETT OTTAWA

Rate hike warning sees Sterling bounce to 12 month highs


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7950 – 0.8050

The Australian dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Thursday as investors toyed with moves back through 0.80 US Cents. The currency rebounded early following stronger than expected labour market data, where in, 54,000 new jobs were added amid strong growth in full time employment and participation rates. The Aussie bounced through 0.80 and touched intraday highs at 0.8016 before softer than anticipated Chinese macroeconomic data sets curb upward momentum and investors squared positions leading into an all-important US inflation print. A steady read in core inflation and an uptick in wider consumer prices bolstered the USD and sent the Aussie back below the psychological 0.80 handle to touch intraday lows at 0.7960. Having corrected upward into the open the Aussie now buys 0.7997 US cents as attentions turn to a raft of US activity indicators headlined by Retail Sales. Watch support on moves toward 0.7960 and profit taking on moves through 0.8010.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6700 – 1.6800

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7200 – 0.7300

The New Zealand Dollar saw a drop of sixty basis points from its high over the past twenty-four hours as an increase in the United States inflation reading sent the Greenback higher. Opening at 0.7245 against its American counterpart, the 0.72 handle was tested in overnight trading with an intraday low of 0.7185. Losses were eventually paired as investors domestically focus on the upcoming election where the latest opinion poll showed a 4% lead by the Labour Party. The New Zealand dollar opens this morning at 0.7230 ahead of the latest release of the Business NZ Manufacturing Index

By BRETT OTTAWA

All eyes now on tonight's U.S. consumer price report


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7900 – 0.8000

The Australian dollar tracked sideways through much of the domestic trading session on Wednesday holding onto to gains above 0.80 U.S cents. With little domestic data on hand to drive direction investors seemed content in managing positions ahead of a busy macroeconomic docket. Having touched intraday highs at 0.8044 the AUD then suffered at the hands of renewed USD demand. Reports Trump and republicans are attempting to fast track key tax reforms, chasing a bipartisan agreement to ensure support and success through the house bolstered the world' base currency and fostered widespread gains across most major currency counterparts. Slipping back below 0.80 and opening this morning at 0.7984 attentions turn to key domestic labour market data and headline U.S inflation numbers for direction into Friday and the weekend.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6500 – 1.6600

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7200 – 0.7300

The New Zealand Dollar maintained its sideways range over the past twenty-four hours as it again could not push through the 0.73 handle against the US Dollar. Opening at 0.7285, the Kiwi saw an intraday high of 0.7303 after a stronger NZ FPI number in the morning before pulling back to 0.7220 on broader greenback strength in overnight trading. With a lack of domestic data, markets will focus on the upcoming Inflation reading in the Unites States as the New Zealand Dollar opens this morning at 0.7245.

By BRETT OTTAWA

Markets steady ahead of Thursday's US Inflation Data


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.8000 – 0.8100

The Australian dollar held a relatively tight 50-point range through much of Tuesday having found support on moves toward 0.80 U. S cents. With little macroeconomic data to steer direction the Australian Dollar bounced between intraday lows at 0.8001 and session highs at 0.8050 as investors simply squared positions and risk appetite crept back into the market. Despite easing tensions with North Korea and the softening of Hurricane Irma investors were wary of extending USD gains. The bearish channel remains intact and CPI inflation data poses a significant risk to short term positioning. Attentions remain squarely fixed on Thursday Domestic labour market print and U.S inflation read as key markers and possible catalysts driving an immediate directional shift.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6500 – 1.6600

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7250 – 0.7350

The New Zealand dollar moved higher in the domestic session yesterday, benefitting from the latest opinion polls in the lead up to the general election on September 23rd. Opening at 0.7250 against its American counterpart, the Kiwi drifted off to an intraday low of 0.7220 before surging higher after the Newshub poll suggested an increase in lead for the National Party to 47.3%. The NZD/USD cross hit eventual highs of 0.7320 rallying a full cent. The New Zealand dollar opens at 0.7285 ahead of the latest Food Price Index figures due for release this morning.

By BRETT OTTAWA

Greenback recovers on risk appetite


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.8000 – 0.8100

The Australian dollar edged lower through trade on Monday in what was a lacklustre session for macroeconomic drivers. With little to spark direction the AUD succumb to profit taking as renewed demand for risk sparked an increased push for the USD. Hurricane Irma' downgrade to a Tropical Storm dampened expectations of a significant downturn to national GDP while North Korea did not perform further nuclear test at the weekend. The Aussie moved back through 0.8050 but found support having touched intraday lows at 0.8019 and opens this morning buying 0.8030 U. S cents. With resistance now forming as support at 0.8030 attentions turn to middle level U.S employment data ahead of key labour market data Thursday.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6350 – 1.6450

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7200 – 0.7300

The New Zealand dollar trend ticked higher as risk sentiment improved in overnight markets. Opening at 0.7245 against the US Dollar, the Kiwi reached intraday highs of 0.7295, unable to sustain its rally through the 0.73 barrier. With stronger movements in the US Dollar in offshore trading, the NZD/USD cross eventually settled lower, pairing gains for the day. The New Zealand dollar opens slightly higher this morning at 0.7260 with a lack of domestic data on the horizon.

By BRETT OTTAWA

Aussie holds on to US Dollar gains


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.8000 – 0.8100

The Australian dollar surged through trade on Friday touching fresh two year highs as the U.S dollar met renewed selling pressures. The world' base currency tumbled as investors again revised expectations for interest rates while increasing tensions with North Korea and the ravaging effects of hurricane Irma weighed heavily on investors demand for risk. The Aussie dollar moved through key technical resistance at 0.8030/40 and touched intraday highs at 0.8121 before profit taking saw a correction into the close and we open this morning buying 0.8050 U.S Cents. Attentions today will likely remain with wider risk trends as the domestic macroeconomic docket offers little to spark direction with focus turning to key U.S inflation and detail sales data due Thursday and Friday.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6325 – 1.6450

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

The Greenback continued to succumb to broader weakness on Friday as investors responded to the amended expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hike path with the probability of a Fed rate hike in December now diminished. The EUR/USD pair finished the week on a yearly high of 1.2092 after the European Central Bank left rates and the QE program unchanged. Fairly quiet day ahead on the macroeconomic calendar with the only scheduled release monthly Italian Industrial Production for August. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2014. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.2010 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.2070.

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7200 – 0.7300

The New Zealand peaked on Friday for a weekly high of 0.7335 at the close of the domestic session after an intraday rally of 1.5%. The morning saw a lift in manufacturing sales for the quarter spurred on by an increase in the volume of meat and dairy products. The Kiwi fell from its monthly high in offshore trading as tensions continue between the United States and North Korea. Safe haven plays saw the NZD/USD fall through the 0.73 handle and close the week at 0.7260. With a lack of domestic data on the horizon, investors focus on the upcoming NZ general election on September 23rd as Labour currently holds a small lead in current polls. The New Zealand dollar opens this morning at 72.45 US cents.

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