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By Shameem Musa

Aussie falls under 79c for the first time in four weeks


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7785 – 0.8000

The Australian Dollar opened weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback reaching its lowest level of 0.7859 since August 16. The greenback was given an early boost by renewed talk about the prospect of US tax reforms being back in play with the Trump administration to unveil a stimulative tax reform plan over the next 24 hours. The US Dollar held on to the gains as the Federal Reserve' Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated in her speech yesterday the case for another rate hike later this year. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7885. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7840 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7920.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6900 – 1.7200

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7100 – 0.7300

The New Zealand Dollar enjoyed a roller coaster overnight session initially sliding to a low of 0.7167 before recovering to open this morning at 0.7211. The Federal Reserve' Chair Yellen drove a resurgent Greenback during the American session that saw most major currencies fall significantly, including the Kiwi. Earlier in the day, the New Zealand Dollar had traded lower for much of the day as the ANZ business outlook survey portrayed a declining confidence in economic conditions. Traders have also deemed the political uncertainty with the New Zealand election as a bridge to far and have sold down on the Kiwi, further exacerbating the sell-off. With the NZD consolidating slightly above 0.72 this morning, Investors now turn to Thursdays cash rate announcement and RBNZ statement for direction.

By Shameem Musa

Greenback gains against most major currencies


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

The Australian Dollar opened weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback on the back of escalating tensions between North Korea and the United States. Yesterday we saw the Aussie dollar confined to a limited range of roughly 30 pips. The Australian macroeconomic calendar has a quiet week ahead, there are no scheduled data releases for today, the Aussie dollar will continue to be driven by investor sentiment. The AUD/USD pair reached an overnight low of 0.7926, currently trading at 0.7929. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7910 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7990.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6820 – 1.7150

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7130 – 0.7350

Having edged higher on open the Kiwi gave up early gains on Monday shifting back below 0.73 U.S cents as investors digested recent moves and Saturday' election result. With a coalition needed for the Nationals or Labour to form government investors looked to take profit and sold down NZD holdings. The New Zealand dollar has been one of the best performing major units through the last month and markets seemed content capitalising on gains ahead of further political uncertainty. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7248 the Kiwi opens this morning buying 0.7250 U.S Cents as attentions turn to Thursday RBNZ rate statement and policy announcement for direction moving forward.

By Shameem Musa

Aussie little changed hovering under 80c


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7850 – 0.8075

The Australian Dollar opened weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. After losing nearly 100 pips on Thursday the AUD/USD pair was able to stage a modest recovery on Friday but failed to extend its gains above the 0.80 mark. The Aussie closed the week lower at around 0.7960 down for a second consecutive week. In the absence of any market-moving economic data this week the Aussie dollar is likely to be driven by investor sentiment. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7952. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7910 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7990.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6800 – 1.7150

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7220 – 0.7440

The New Zealand Dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Friday edging lower throughout the domestic session as uncertainty surrounding the weekends election led to short term profit taking and repositioning. Touching intraday lows at 0.7275 the NZD then rallied into the close, buoyed by risk off trade and wider USD weakness following a dismantling of risk appetite in the wake of comments from North Korea' foreign minister. Escalating tensions between the rogue State and the US forced a selloff in U.S yields and the worlds base currency enabling the NZD to move back through 0.73 and touch 0.7345. As attentions turn now to the election result there is some scope for an uptick with the prospect of looser fiscal policy and increased government spending likely to drive inflation and force RBNZ activity sooner than expected.

By SHAMEEM MUSA

AUD gives up gains on RBA comments


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7870 – 0.8050

It' been a wild ride for the AUD over the past 24 hours gyrating between a low of 0.7916 and a high of 0.8036 when valued against its US Counterpart. Amid highly liquid trading conditions the Australian dollar managed to give up all of its gains from overnight on Wednesday in the aftermath of comments made by RBA Governor Philip Lowe. Triggering the sell-off Phillip Lowe stated that markets couldn’t rely on accommodative monetary policy forever and that the environment of record low interest rates was nearing an end. Opening a staggering 1.2% lower the Australian dollar currently swaps hands a rate of 0.7932 when valued against its US Counterpart.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6980 – 1.7250

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7220 – 0.7440

The New Zealand dollar has continued to fade from a position of strength over the past 24 hours, slumping to an eventual low of 0.7298 when valued against its US Counterpart. Whilst recent polling has re-affirmed the National Party' lead ahead of tomorrow' vote, currency moves were more influenced by the FOMC for much of Thursday' session as the Kiwi struggled to keep pace with the world' reserve currency. Whilst monetary and balance sheet tightening from the United States remains a critical driver over the medium-term, this weekend' election will have the markets full attention. Opening lower the New Zealand dollar currently buys 73.07 US Cents.

By MATT RICHARDSON

Greenback enjoys only measured gains despite hawkish FOMC


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7980 – 0.8080

The Australian Dollar ascended against the Greenback yesterday as government yields hit their highest level since 2015 which gave support to the local unit. Pre FOMC announcement, AUD/USD hit a high of 0.8100 but soon pulled back falling almost a cent back under 0.8000 following the Fed release. As widely expected the Fed held the target rate steady at 1.00-1.25% and also announced the beginning of balance sheet normalisation next month after almost ten years of the onset of the global financial crisis. Markets are led to believe there will be three rate hikes in 2018 and perhaps one in December of this year. Aussie currently buying 0.8030 when valued against its US counterpart. Later today sees the RBA Governor Lowe speak in Perth on a speech titled ‘The Next Chapter’ to the American Chamber of Commerce.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6625 – 1.6925

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7275 – 0.7425

The New Zealand Dollar is slightly stronger against the Greenback after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it would embark next month on its biggest policy shift since 2015. The central bank confirmed that it would start trimming the $US4.5 trillion balance sheet it built up. On the release of the FOMC statement the Kiwi spiked to a six week high of 0.7433. Looking ahead locally today and all attentions turn to the release of Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter which is expected to rise 0.8%, taking the year on year pace to 2.5%. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7352. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7340 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7400.

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