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By Shameem Musa

Australian Dollar bounces off 78c


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7750 – 0.7950

The Australian dollar tested key technical supports through trade on Thursday moving through 0.7830 and touching intraday lows at 0.78. The Aussie suffered a steep sell off following proposed changes to both private and corporate tax systems by U.S president Donald Trump. The suggested tax amendments, if passed, would mean the biggest shift in U.S taxation for 30 years and sparked confidence that the republican leader may deliver some of the promises proffered last November. Having found support at 0.78 the Aussie rallied into the close as profit taking and quarterly position management forced a correction in the USD and we open this morning buying 0.7854 U.S cents. Attentions now turn to next Tuesday' RBA rate announcement and monetary policy statement for further direction and guidance on monetary policy divergence as we watch key supports at 0.7830 and 0.78. A break and consolidated close below these thresholds could signal a shift in short term ranges.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.7000 – 1.7200

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7100 – 0.7300

The New Zealand dollar edged higher throughout trade on Thursday as profit taking and quarterly line management forced the USD to recant gains enjoyed through recent days. The RBNZ' rate announcement offered little to excite investors and left the Kiwi at the mercy of offshore markers. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7166 on proposals of wide reaching U.S tax reform the NZD rallied breaking higher and moving back through 0.72 U.S cents as investors sold into the extended USD rally and squared positions leading into month' end. With support at 0.7170 attentions turn to next week' U.S Non-farm payroll number for macroeconomic direction.

By Shameem Musa

Greenback showing signs of strength


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7750 – 0.7950

With the worlds reserve currency continuing its move to higher ground the Australian dollar has come under renewed pressure over the past 24 hours. Slumping to a low of 0.7836 during Wednesday' session, optimism that Trumps Tax Plan will support growth and drive greater investment has spurred interest in the Greenback which again opens in a broadly stronger position this morning. Having to digest another tranche of key macro releases from the United States tonight, a speech by RBA Assist Governor Guy Debelle in London is likely to have only a limited impact. Opening lower the Australian dollar currently buys 78.50 US Cents.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6900 – 1.7200

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7100 – 0.7300

The New Zealand Dollar remains relatively unchanged this morning, trading within a tight range slightly above the 0.72 level. Initially the Kiwi gained against the Greenback in overnight trading, reaching a high of 0.7238 and showing signs of post-election underperformance recovery. However, the positive headline gave way to a small sell-off and was subsequently forced lower as the RBNZ chose to keep rates on hold as widely expected. The official statement also held no demons with Acting Governor Grant Spencer reiterating the RBNZ' continued accommodative stance. With little else on the domestic front to drive direction today, the Kiwi now turns to its counterparties GDP figures later this evening for momentum.

By Shameem Musa

Aussie falls under 79c for the first time in four weeks


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7785 – 0.8000

The Australian Dollar opened weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback reaching its lowest level of 0.7859 since August 16. The greenback was given an early boost by renewed talk about the prospect of US tax reforms being back in play with the Trump administration to unveil a stimulative tax reform plan over the next 24 hours. The US Dollar held on to the gains as the Federal Reserve' Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated in her speech yesterday the case for another rate hike later this year. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7885. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7840 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7920.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6900 – 1.7200

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7100 – 0.7300

The New Zealand Dollar enjoyed a roller coaster overnight session initially sliding to a low of 0.7167 before recovering to open this morning at 0.7211. The Federal Reserve' Chair Yellen drove a resurgent Greenback during the American session that saw most major currencies fall significantly, including the Kiwi. Earlier in the day, the New Zealand Dollar had traded lower for much of the day as the ANZ business outlook survey portrayed a declining confidence in economic conditions. Traders have also deemed the political uncertainty with the New Zealand election as a bridge to far and have sold down on the Kiwi, further exacerbating the sell-off. With the NZD consolidating slightly above 0.72 this morning, Investors now turn to Thursdays cash rate announcement and RBNZ statement for direction.

By Shameem Musa

Greenback gains against most major currencies


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

The Australian Dollar opened weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback on the back of escalating tensions between North Korea and the United States. Yesterday we saw the Aussie dollar confined to a limited range of roughly 30 pips. The Australian macroeconomic calendar has a quiet week ahead, there are no scheduled data releases for today, the Aussie dollar will continue to be driven by investor sentiment. The AUD/USD pair reached an overnight low of 0.7926, currently trading at 0.7929. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7910 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7990.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6820 – 1.7150

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7130 – 0.7350

Having edged higher on open the Kiwi gave up early gains on Monday shifting back below 0.73 U.S cents as investors digested recent moves and Saturday' election result. With a coalition needed for the Nationals or Labour to form government investors looked to take profit and sold down NZD holdings. The New Zealand dollar has been one of the best performing major units through the last month and markets seemed content capitalising on gains ahead of further political uncertainty. Having touched intraday lows at 0.7248 the Kiwi opens this morning buying 0.7250 U.S Cents as attentions turn to Thursday RBNZ rate statement and policy announcement for direction moving forward.

By Shameem Musa

Aussie little changed hovering under 80c


Australian Dollar

AUD / USD

Expected Range

0.7850 – 0.8075

The Australian Dollar opened weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. After losing nearly 100 pips on Thursday the AUD/USD pair was able to stage a modest recovery on Friday but failed to extend its gains above the 0.80 mark. The Aussie closed the week lower at around 0.7960 down for a second consecutive week. In the absence of any market-moving economic data this week the Aussie dollar is likely to be driven by investor sentiment. The AUD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7952. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7910 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7990.

Great British Pound

GBP / AUD

Expected Range

1.6800 – 1.7150

Majors

USD, EUR, JPY

Expected Range

N/A

New Zealand Dollar

NZD / USD

Expected Range

0.7220 – 0.7440

The New Zealand Dollar enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Friday edging lower throughout the domestic session as uncertainty surrounding the weekends election led to short term profit taking and repositioning. Touching intraday lows at 0.7275 the NZD then rallied into the close, buoyed by risk off trade and wider USD weakness following a dismantling of risk appetite in the wake of comments from North Korea' foreign minister. Escalating tensions between the rogue State and the US forced a selloff in U.S yields and the worlds base currency enabling the NZD to move back through 0.73 and touch 0.7345. As attentions turn now to the election result there is some scope for an uptick with the prospect of looser fiscal policy and increased government spending likely to drive inflation and force RBNZ activity sooner than expected.

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